Expedia Group Inc Dossier
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SectorConsumer Discretionary IndustryTravel Services Beta (adjusted)1.17 Intrinsic Value $451.90median of 6 methods · middle span $189-$1,410based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $262.67Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 72% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (+72%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $31.5B Enterprise Value $30.3B Shares Outstanding 121.4M diluted Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend27 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Expedia Group entered the second half of 2026 with strong operating momentum: second-quarter gross bookings increased 12%, revenue increased 14%, adjusted EBITDA increased 23%, and management raised full-year guidance. B2B remains the principal growth engine, while improving B2C performance and margin expansion strengthen the operating case. Expedia is also investing in AI-native discovery, planning, booking, and partner-distribution capabilities. The balanced Hold recommendation reflects this execution strength against cyclical travel exposure, dependence on search and paid acquisition, intense competition including emerging AI platforms. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$245.00 Mean target$333.86 High · most bullish analyst$417.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $245.0020% The downside case would emerge if travel demand weakens, gross-bookings or revenue growth falls below raised guidance, or margin expansion misses the lower bound. Additional pressure could arise from search-engine dependence, higher traffic-acquisition costs, supplier or B2B-partner disruption, regulatory exposure, technology or cybersecurity incidents, and competition from online travel agencies, suppliers, and AI-powered travel platforms. Base CaseCentral scenario $333.8660% Matches the consensus meanThe base case assumes Expedia delivers within its raised full-year ranges of 8%-9% gross-bookings growth, 9%-10% revenue growth, and 1.5-1.75 percentage points of adjusted EBITDA margin expansion. B2B remains the fastest-growing segment, B2C continues positive growth, and AI investments improve the traveler and partner propositions without materially disrupting cost discipline. Bull CaseUpside scenario $417.0020% The upside case requires sustained B2B momentum, continued B2C growth, successful conversion of Expedia's AI and personalization initiatives, and results above the raised 2026 guidance ranges. Second-quarter B2B gross bookings and revenue grew 21% and 23%, respectively, while the company is extending its partner platform through AI components and broader trip inventory. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |