Estee Lauder Cos Inc Dossier
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SectorConsumer Staples IndustryPersonal Care Products Beta (adjusted)1.16 Intrinsic Value $38.44median of 6 methods · middle span $7-$119based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $90.19Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Significantly overvaluedIntrinsic value is 57% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (-57%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $32.7B Enterprise Value $36B Shares Outstanding 364.8M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date2 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend29 May 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Estée Lauder entered fiscal 2027 with materially improved operating momentum: fiscal 2026 organic sales rose 3%, the fourth quarter delivered 5% organic growth, and adjusted operating margin expanded 320 basis points to 11.2%. Management guides to 3% to 5% organic growth and a 12.7% to 13.5% adjusted operating margin in fiscal 2027. The recovery is supported by fragrance strength, improving performance in mainland China, broader distribution, innovation, and PRGP efficiencies. A neutral stance remains appropriate because makeup and hair care were still weak, execution requires substantial restructuring, and the outlook assumes no deterioration in tariffs, geopolitics, or consumer sentiment. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$70.00 Mean target$95.85 High · most bullish analyst$125.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $70.0024% Organic growth falls below 3% or adjusted operating margin remains below 12.7% as makeup weakness persists, travel-retail or mainland-China momentum softens, tariffs and inflation pressure gross margin, or restructuring and outsourcing disrupt execution. Base CaseCentral scenario $95.8556% Matches the consensus meanOrganic growth lands within the 3% to 5% range and adjusted operating margin reaches the guided 12.7% to 13.5% range. Fragrance and skin care offset uneven recovery elsewhere, while PRGP benefits and operating leverage support earnings improvement. Bull CaseUpside scenario $125.0020% Organic growth reaches the upper end of the 3% to 5% outlook while adjusted operating margin reaches or exceeds 13.5%. Fragrance and skin care retain momentum, makeup returns to growth, North America accelerates, mainland China continues gaining share, and PRGP savings fund effective consumer investment. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |