Equinor ASA ADR Dossier
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SectorEnergy IndustryIntegrated Oil & Gas Beta (adjusted)-0.15 Intrinsic Value $31.22median of 6 methods · middle span $22-$281based on filings through 31 Dec 2025 Market Price $42.17Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 26% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $99.9B Enterprise Value $118.7B Shares Outstanding 2.6B diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date28 Oct 2026 Next ex-dividend16 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Equinor enters the second half of 2026 with strong production, cash generation and balance-sheet improvement, while its Capital Markets Day framework targets higher 2030 production, more than USD 40 billion of cumulative free cash flow during 2026-2030, and disciplined shareholder distributions. The operational outlook is constructive, but returns remain sensitive to commodity prices, project execution and adherence to the USD 11-13 billion long-term annual capital-expenditure range. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$31.25 Mean target$34.74 High · most bullish analyst$38.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $31.2520% Lower commodity prices, natural decline, operational interruptions or project delays weaken cash-flow growth while capital expenditure rises above the stated range. Under those conditions, the conditional buyback framework provides less support and Equinor may fall short of its 2030 production and return ambitions. Base CaseCentral scenario $34.7458% Matches the consensus meanEquinor broadly executes its Capital Markets Day plan: production trends toward 2.3 million boe per day by 2030, annual capital expenditure remains within the stated framework, and shareholder distributions continue subject to commodity prices and board approval. Bull CaseUpside scenario $38.0022% Production growth, strong marketing and trading performance, and timely delivery of NCS and international projects allow Equinor to meet or exceed its 2.3 million boe-per-day 2030 ambition. Cash flow benefits from supportive oil and European gas prices, enabling delivery above the stated USD 40 billion cumulative 2026-2030 free-cash-flow objective while maintaining dividends and buybacks. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |