Enterprise Products Partners L P Dossier - Source-backed chat

Enterprise Products Partners L P

EPDNYSE

SectorEnergy

IndustryOil & Gas Storage & Transportation

Beta (adjusted)0.67

Intrinsic Value $40.67median of 5 methods · middle span $29-$65based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $35.67Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 14% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $77B

Enterprise Value $110B

Shares Outstanding 2.2B diluted

Moat Rating Wide

Next Earnings Date27 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend31 Jul 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Enterprise entered the second half of 2026 with record quarterly adjusted EBITDA, operational distributable cash flow, pipeline volumes, and marine-terminal volumes. Distribution coverage was 1.9 times, and management retained USD 1.1 billion of quarterly distributable cash flow while continuing distributions and repurchases. The operating outlook is supported by USD 6.5 billion of organic projects under construction, but part of the second-quarter strength reflected elevated marketing margins, mark-to-market gains, and a temporary April-May export-demand surge.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets20 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$37.00

Mean target$41.15

High · most bullish analyst$46.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$37.0020%

Export and marketing conditions weaken, equivalent pipeline throughput falls below the prior-year second-quarter comparison, or construction delays push spending above guidance. Lower coverage would reduce retained cash available for self-funded projects and repurchases and could weaken the distribution-growth proposition.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$41.1555%

Matches the consensus mean

Volumes and cash generation remain healthy but normalize from the exceptional second quarter as April-May export-demand effects and mark-to-market benefits fade. Projects enter service broadly on schedule, distribution coverage remains adequate, and capital spending stays within management's stated range.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$46.0025%

Record system throughput persists, the Houston Ship Channel LPG expansion starts on schedule by year-end 2026, and the broader construction portfolio converts into fee-based cash flow without material cost escalation. Continued coverage near the second-quarter level would preserve capacity for distribution growth, internally funded expansion, and repurchases.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Second-quarter 2026 adjusted EBITDA reached USD 2.829 billion and operational distributable cash flow reached USD 2.312 billion, supporting 1.9-times distribution coverage and USD 1.1 billion of retained distributable cash flow.
Equivalent pipeline transportation volume reached a record 14.685 million barrels per day, while total marine-terminal volume reached a record 2.771 million barrels per day.
Management reported USD 6.5 billion of organic growth projects under construction and expected the next major project, the Houston Ship Channel LPG export-terminal expansion, to begin operations by year-end 2026.

Key Investment Risks

Second-quarter performance included a USD 77 million year-over-year increase in unrealized mark-to-market gains and stronger marketing margins, reducing the extent to which the record quarter should be treated as a steady-state run rate.
Management said marine-terminal volumes returned to normal levels in June and July after an April-May surge associated with Middle East disruptions, indicating that part of the record throughput was event-driven.
The USD 6.5 billion construction portfolio creates execution, commissioning, and cost-control exposure; material delays or spending above the USD 3.4 billion upper end of 2026 growth-capital guidance would weaken the self-funding case.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.