Ecopetrol SA ADR Dossier - Source-backed chat

Ecopetrol SA ADR

ECOPETROLBolsa de Valores de Colombia

SectorEnergy

IndustryOil & Gas Integrated

Beta (adjusted)0.30

Intrinsic Value

Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet.

Market Price $16.27Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Data confidenceNot applicable

Market Cap $33.4B

Enterprise Value $95.2T

Shares Outstanding 2.1B diluted

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date10 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend29 Apr 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Strong Q2 2026 profitability and refining performance support the investment case, while production execution, commodity and refining-margin normalization, and integration and financing risks associated with Brava Energía warrant a balanced stance.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets11 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$9.00

Mean target$13.65

High · most bullish analyst$18.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$9.0023%

Annual production falls below the lower guidance boundary, refining or commodity conditions weaken, and Brava integration or transaction financing places greater pressure on leverage and returns.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$13.6556%

Matches the consensus mean

Production remains within the 730–740 kboe/d guidance range and Q2 profitability provides resilience, but refining and commodity conditions normalize and Brava integration limits near-term upside.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$18.0021%

Production reaches or exceeds the upper end of 2026 guidance, refining performance remains strong, and the controlling Brava Energía investment is integrated without materially weakening the capital structure.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Q2 2026 produced COP 17.7 trillion of EBITDA at a 44% margin and COP 6.1 trillion of net income.
Integrated refining throughput reached 439 kbd, while the reported gross refining margin was USD 29.8 per barrel.

Key Investment Risks

Production execution remains material because 2026 guidance is 730–740 kboe/d and operational disruptions can impair delivery.
The Brava Energía transaction introduces integration, refinancing, leverage, and return-on-investment execution risk.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.