e.l.f. Beauty Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

e.l.f. Beauty Inc

ELFNYSE

SectorConsumer Staples

IndustryHousehold & Personal Products

Beta (adjusted)1.38

Intrinsic Value $82.10median of 6 methods · middle span $27-$127based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $100.97Price as of 30 Sep 2026

OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 19% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $6B

Enterprise Value $6.4B

Shares Outstanding 61.4M diluted

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date4 Nov 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. represents a compelling growth-at-a-reasonable-price opportunity following a significant valuation contraction. Despite short-term headwinds from a core brand consumption slowdown and tariff-related pricing adjustments, the company's structural advantages remain intact. These include its highly efficient 'prestige-to-mass' fast-follower innovation cycle, disruptive digital marketing engine, and asset-light outsourced manufacturing model. The strategic acquisitions of Naturium and Rhode provide high-growth skincare engines that diversify the portfolio and expand the addressable market. With the stock trading at a depressed forward multiple relative to its historical average and peers, the risk-reward profile is highly favorable for long-term investors as international expansion and category diversification (such as the launch of e.l.f. Hair) take hold.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets16 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$65.00

Mean target$97.25

High · most bullish analyst$121.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$65.0020%

The bear case reflects persistent weakness in the core e.l.f. brand as price-sensitive consumers pull back, combined with escalating tariff pressures that compress gross margins. In addition, rising customer acquisition costs in crowded digital marketing channels and integration bottlenecks with Rhode or Naturium could limit international expansion, leading to growth falling below double digits and further multiple compression.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$97.2555%

Matches the consensus mean

The base case assumes e.l.f. successfully navigates the near-term consumption slowdown by resetting select prices to improve unit velocity. Rhode continues its steady growth trajectory, contributing significantly to the top line, while international markets expand gradually. Gross margins remain stable as lower tariff costs and pricing actions offset mix pressures, allowing the company to meet its FY27 guidance of 12% to 14% net sales growth and adjusted EPS of $3.27 to $3.32.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$121.0025%

The bull case is driven by a rapid and highly successful international expansion of the Rhode and Naturium brands, particularly the Sephora Europe rollout, alongside a strong rebound in core e.l.f. brand velocity following price optimization. In this scenario, international sales scale to represent over 30% of the business, and the newly launched e.l.f. Hair line gains rapid traction on TikTok Shop and Target, driving overall revenue growth well above conservative management guidance.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Industry-leading track record of 29 consecutive quarters of net sales growth and consistent market share gains.
Highly successful acquisition of Rhode, which delivered over $500 million in annualized global retail sales and serves as a major growth catalyst.
Disruptive, social-first marketing engine that drives high brand equity and engagement among Gen Z and Millennial consumers at a lower cost than legacy peers.
Asset-light business model that provides immense supply chain flexibility and rapid speed-to-market for new innovations.

Key Investment Risks

Core brand consumption slowdown in the U.S. mass cosmetics market.
Geopolitical and tariff risks, particularly given the company's reliance on outsourced manufacturing partners in China.
Intense competition from both legacy beauty conglomerates and emerging celebrity-backed or digitally native brands.
Potential margin compression from rising digital marketing costs and customer acquisition expenses.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Organic net sales growth falling below mid-single digits for two consecutive quarters.
Significant gross margin degradation below 70% due to unmitigated tariff increases or severe supply chain disruptions.
Failure of the Rhode European rollout to meet distribution and sales targets in Sephora stores.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.