Dutch Bros Inc Dossier
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SectorConsumer Discretionary IndustryRestaurants Beta (adjusted)1.88 Intrinsic Value $40.25median of 6 methods · middle span $37-$65based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $38.61Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 4% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $6.8B Enterprise Value $6.7B Shares Outstanding 175.4M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date4 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Dutch Bros has strong operating momentum: second-quarter 2026 revenue increased 32.5%, systemwide same-shop sales increased 5.8%, company-operated transactions increased 3.4%, and the system reached 1,225 shops. Management raised full-year revenue, same-shop-sales and adjusted-EBITDA guidance, while its long-term plan targets 2,029 shops in 2029 within a stated addressable market exceeding 7,000 shops. The principal counterweights are execution demands from rapid development, consumer and input-cost sensitivity, and uncertainty around conversion of up to 65 acquired drive-thru sites. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$68.00 Mean target$79.79 High · most bullish analyst$95.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $68.0020% The bear case assumes systemwide same-shop sales fall below the 5% lower bound of 2026 guidance, annual openings miss the at-least-185 target, or company-operated contribution margin drops below 30%. Weak traffic, commodity or labor inflation, limited site availability, and difficulties converting acquired sites could then undermine the long-term growth algorithm. Base CaseCentral scenario $79.7956% Matches the consensus meanThe base case assumes execution broadly tracks current company guidance: 2026 systemwide same-shop sales remain within 5% to 6%, at least 185 system shops open, and company-operated contribution margin remains around the stated long-term 30% goal. Growth remains strong but moderates from second-quarter levels as development and site-conversion requirements increase. Bull CaseUpside scenario $95.0024% The bull case assumes Dutch Bros sustains positive traffic, delivers at least 185 system openings in 2026, keeps company-operated contribution margin near 30%, and successfully converts a substantial portion of the up-to-65 acquired drive-thru sites during 2027. These outcomes would reinforce the credibility of the 2,029-shop goal and the long-term algorithm of approximately 20% annual revenue growth and more than 20% adjusted-EBITDA growth. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |