Dorman Products Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Dorman Products Inc

DORMNASDAQ

SectorConsumer Discretionary

IndustryAuto Parts

Beta (adjusted)1.00

Intrinsic Value $125.53median of 6 methods · middle span $99-$127based on filings through 27 Jun 2026

Market Price $122.89Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 2% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $3.6B

Enterprise Value $4B

Shares Outstanding 30.2M diluted

Moat Rating Wide

Next Earnings Date26 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend13 Dec 2012

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Dorman Products, Inc. is a leading innovator in the automotive aftermarket, offering a vast catalog of over 144,000 distinct parts. Despite short-term margin compression in Q1 2026 driven by peak tariff-related costs, the company's long-term growth remains supported by an aging vehicle fleet and strong customer POS demand. Management's reaffirmation of its full-year 2026 guidance, combined with aggressive share repurchases ($51 million in Q1 2026 alone), highlights strong underlying cash generation and confidence in operational recovery as tariff headwinds ease in the latter half of the year.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets8 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$154.00

Mean target$162.38

High · most bullish analyst$170.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

Persistent or escalating trade tariffs and failure to pass costs to large distributors lead to prolonged margin compression. The freight recession deepens, further dragging down the Heavy Duty segment, resulting in full-year adjusted diluted EPS falling below $7.50.

Base CaseCentral scenario

The company successfully navigates tariff headwinds, with margins recovering in the second half of 2026 to achieve full-year adjusted operating margins of 15% to 16%. Net sales grow by 7% to 9% driven by pricing actions and stable light-duty demand, while adjusted diluted EPS meets the guided range of $8.10 to $8.50.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Innovation leadership with a massive catalog of over 144,000 distinct parts and proprietary 'OE FIX' solutions.
Favorable industry tailwinds from an aging US vehicle fleet, driving sustained aftermarket demand.
Strong cash flow generation supporting aggressive capital return, including a record $51 million in share repurchases in Q1 2026.

Key Investment Risks

High concentration of product sourcing from China, exposing the company to tariff and trade policy volatility.
Customer concentration, with two major distributors accounting for approximately 40% of net sales.
Prolonged freight recession impacting demand in the Heavy Duty vehicle segment.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Implementation of new, severe tariffs on Chinese imports without the ability to pass costs to customers.
Loss of business or significant margin concessions demanded by one of the top two retail/distributor customers.
Adjusted operating margins failing to recover sequentially in Q2 and Q3 2026.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.