DoorDash, Inc. Dossier - Source-backed chat

DoorDash, Inc.

DASHNASDAQ

SectorConsumer Discretionary

IndustryBroadline Retail

Beta (adjusted)1.50

Intrinsic Value $185.77median of 6 methods · middle span $126-$546based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $182.18Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 2% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $78.9B

Enterprise Value $77.2B

Shares Outstanding 443.5M diluted

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date4 Nov 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

DoorDash entered the second half of 2026 with strong marketplace momentum and improving adjusted profitability. Q2 Total Orders reached 970 million, Marketplace GOV reached $33.078 billion, and Adjusted EBITDA reached $914 million. Membership adoption, grocery and retail engagement, international unit-economics improvement, and merchant-service expansion provide credible long-duration growth avenues. However, Deliveroo materially increased reported growth, management is raising investment in integration, technology, AI, and autonomy, and the company expects Adjusted EBITDA as a percentage of Marketplace GOV to decline sequentially in Q4. A Hold recommendation reflects this favorable operating trajectory balanced against integration, execution, regulatory, and investment-intensity uncertainties.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets42 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$172.00

Mean target$251.94

High · most bullish analyst$350.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$172.0019%

Organic growth decelerates more sharply than headline results imply, Deliveroo integration creates operational friction, and consumer spending or foreign-exchange conditions weaken. Higher technology, autonomy, insurance, regulatory, and Dasher-related costs pressure profitability, while international complexity and worker-classification or price-control matters limit operating leverage.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$251.9456%

Matches the consensus mean

DoorDash sustains positive organic marketplace growth while integrating Deliveroo and investing in international operations, merchant services, AI, autonomy, and its global technology platform. Q3 performance remains within management's $33.0-$34.0 billion Marketplace GOV and $950-$1,100 million Adjusted EBITDA ranges, but Q4 margin seasonality and investment restrain near-term operating leverage.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$350.0025%

Membership-led engagement remains durable, U.S. restaurant growth stays resilient, grocery and retail adoption compounds, and international unit economics continue improving. Successful rollout of the unified global technology platform in the first half of 2027 reduces redundancy and accelerates product development. Merchant services, including digital ordering and SevenRooms, add growth beyond marketplace delivery, while AI and autonomy improve discovery, routing, and fulfillment economics.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Q2 2026 Total Orders increased 27% year over year to 970 million, Marketplace GOV increased 36% to $33.078 billion, and revenue increased 36% to $4.454 billion.
U.S. paid DashPass additions during the twelve months through Q2 2026 exceeded additions over the preceding twenty-four months combined, and DashPass members generated approximately 75% of U.S. grocery and retail orders in Q2.
Q2 Adjusted EBITDA increased 40% year over year to $914 million, while trailing-twelve-month free cash flow reached $2.139 billion.
DoorDash reported improving international unit economics and expects its unified global technology platform to be fully rolled out in the first half of 2027.
New SevenRooms signed venues grew more than 100% year over year, and revenue from digital ordering used by over 150,000 merchants grew more than 40% year over year in Q2.

Key Investment Risks

Deliveroo amplified reported growth: excluding the acquisition, Q2 Total Orders increased 17% rather than 27%, Marketplace GOV increased 23% rather than 36%, and revenue increased 24% rather than 36%.
Management expects Adjusted EBITDA as a percentage of Marketplace GOV to decline sequentially in Q4 2026 because of seasonal Dasher costs, insurance expenses, and increased technology-platform and autonomy investment.
DoorDash identifies consumer-spending deterioration, foreign-exchange volatility, geopolitical conditions, international operating complexity, competition, and legal or regulatory developments as material uncertainties.
Q2 GAAP net income attributable to common stockholders declined 30% year over year even as adjusted EBITDA increased, highlighting the importance of acquisition-related, compensation, depreciation, legal, tax, and regulatory costs.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.