Domo Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Domo Inc

DOMONASDAQ

SectorInformation Technology

IndustryApplication Software

Beta (adjusted)1.47

Intrinsic Value

Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet.

Market Price $3.55Price as of 23 Sep 2026

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Market Cap $167M

Enterprise Value $279.1M

Shares Outstanding 45.5M diluted

Next Earnings Date3 Dec 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Domo, Inc. is currently in advanced negotiations regarding a potential strategic transaction after its Board of Directors concluded that pursuing a sale or merger represents the best path to maximize shareholder value. Operationally, the company is experiencing flat to slightly declining revenue growth (Q1 FY2027 revenue down 1% year-over-year to $79.4 million) and has recently faced capital structure pressures, including noncompliance with its credit facility's minimum ARR covenant (now under a forbearance agreement). Given the active strategic review and advanced negotiations, the stock's near-term performance will be heavily dictated by the outcome of these discussions, making a 'Hold' the most prudent recommendation.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets6 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$2.25

Mean target$4.33

High · most bullish analyst$7.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$2.25

Negotiations fall through, no transaction is executed, and the company must address its debt obligations and covenant noncompliance independently under tight liquidity, leading to further downside and potential restructuring.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$3.25

Domo successfully concludes its advanced negotiations and announces a strategic transaction in the near term, providing a moderate premium to the current trading price while resolving its covenant noncompliance and capital structure overhang.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$5.00

A strategic buyer or private equity firm acquires Domo at a significant premium to its current depressed valuation, valuing its $300M+ recurring revenue stream, established customer base of over 2,400 organizations, and integrated AI/data products platform.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Advanced negotiations for a strategic transaction to maximize shareholder value are underway.
Established cloud-native platform with over 1,000 pre-built connectors and growing adoption of its Domo.AI features.
Substantial recurring subscription revenue base approaching $300 million annually.
Gross retention rates remain healthy, reflecting deep integration into customer workflows.

Key Investment Risks

No assurance that advanced negotiations will result in a definitive agreement or completed transaction.
Covenant noncompliance under its credit facility requires reliance on a forbearance agreement, highlighting capital structure risks.
Flat to declining top-line growth with Q1 FY2027 revenue down 1% year-over-year.
Highly competitive business intelligence and analytics market dominated by larger players like Microsoft (Power BI) and Salesforce (Tableau).

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Termination of strategic transaction negotiations without an alternative buyer.
Lender acceleration of debt due to forbearance expiration or further covenant breaches.
Accelerated decline in subscription remaining performance obligations (RPO) or customer count.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.