Docebo Inc Dossier
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SectorInformation Technology IndustryApplication Software Beta (adjusted)0.86 Intrinsic Value No headline value published yetWe haven't published a headline intrinsic value for this company yet. Our data-reliability standards weren't met. Method estimates are shown for reference. Market Price $23.44Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $584.8M Enterprise Value $589.8M Shares Outstanding 24.9M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date6 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Docebo Inc. is successfully transitioning from a mid-market learning management system (LMS) provider into an enterprise-grade 'AI Workforce Readiness Platform.' The company's strategic pivot upmarket is driving higher average contract values (ACV) and superior net dollar retention (NDR). Despite short-term GAAP net losses due to strategic investments and foreign exchange headwinds, Docebo's core direct enterprise business is accelerating, and its reduction in OEM customer concentration significantly de-risks its long-term revenue profile. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$22.00 Mean target$28.77 High · most bullish analyst$38.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario Docebo faces significant headwinds from the churn of major OEM partners, such as AWS (which internalized its learning platform) and Dayforce (which acquired a competitor), which has negatively impacted ARR optics. The company's Net Dollar Retention (NDR) stands at 99%, indicating that its land-and-expand strategy is not yet fully proven. Furthermore, the enterprise LMS space is highly competitive and crowded with large players, raising concerns about low barriers to entry and potential AI disruption. Financial risks also include a transition to negative shareholders' equity as of Q1 2026. Base CaseCentral scenario Docebo continues to execute its upmarket enterprise strategy, leveraging its proprietary data layer and the 365Talents acquisition to cross-sell skills intelligence. Core ARR growth remains in the low-to-mid teens, and Adjusted EBITDA margins expand toward the target operating model of 20.5% for FY2026, supported by disciplined cost management and high-margin subscription software. Bull CaseUpside scenario Docebo is successfully repositioning toward larger enterprise clients, which is expected to drive higher ARR per client and improve long-term retention. The company's expansion into skills intelligence, notably through the acquisition of 365Talents and the launch of its next-generation AI platform (including AgentHub and Skills Intelligence), provides a strong competitive advantage. Additionally, management raised FY26 guidance for revenue and adjusted EBITDA, demonstrating near-term momentum, while disciplined capital management is reflected in a share repurchase program that has reduced outstanding shares by approximately 22% since 2021. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |