Danaher Corp Dossier - Source-backed chat

Danaher Corp

DHRNYSE

SectorHealth Care

IndustryLife Sciences Tools & Services

Beta (adjusted)0.84

Intrinsic Value $202.91median of 6 methods · middle span $150-$222based on filings through 26 Jun 2026

Market Price $211.76Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 4% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $148.9B

Enterprise Value $171.1B

Shares Outstanding 705.6M diluted

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date20 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend26 Jun 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Danaher's operating recovery strengthened in the second quarter: core revenue growth improved to 3.0% from 0.5% in the first quarter, growth excluding respiratory testing reached 4.5%, adjusted diluted EPS increased 8%, and free cash flow was $1.265 billion. The company nevertheless guides to only 2.0%-3.0% core growth in Q3 and 3.0%-4.0% for 2026, while the completed Masimo acquisition adds integration and debt-execution requirements.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets23 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$195.00

Mean target$227.96

High · most bullish analyst$310.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$195.0019%

Customer-project timing, respiratory-testing variability, or weaker diagnostics demand prevents the anticipated exit-rate acceleration, while acquisition-related debt and integration demands constrain execution. Failure to achieve the lower bounds of the 2026 core-growth or adjusted-EPS guidance would materially weaken the thesis.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$227.9658%

Matches the consensus mean

Danaher delivers 2026 core revenue growth within the 3.0%-4.0% range and adjusted diluted EPS within the $8.45-$8.60 range, while Masimo integration remains manageable.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$310.0023%

Underlying demand recovery broadens, bioprocessing order strength converts into revenue, and Danaher reaches its expected mid-single-digit fourth-quarter core-growth exit rate. Successful Masimo integration and completion of the recurring-revenue StatLab acquisition would strengthen growth and earnings durability.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Core revenue growth accelerated from 0.5% in Q1 2026 to 3.0% in Q2, while Q2 growth excluding respiratory testing reached 4.5%.
Q2 adjusted diluted EPS increased 8% to $1.94, and free cash flow increased approximately 15.5% to $1.265 billion.
Danaher completed the Masimo acquisition earlier than anticipated, while pending acquisition target StatLab generated approximately $250 million of 2025 revenue, has more than 85% recurring revenue, and is expected by Danaher to produce high-single-digit long-term core growth.

Key Investment Risks

Q3 core-revenue guidance of 2.0%-3.0% remains below the anticipated mid-single-digit Q4 exit rate, leaving the recovery dependent on second-half acceleration.
The Masimo acquisition introduces incremental debt, integration, synergy-realization, and contingent-liability exposure.
Respiratory-testing demand is volatile, and Q2 Diagnostics core growth was 2.0% versus 5.0% when respiratory testing was excluded.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.