Cullen Frost Bankers Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Cullen Frost Bankers Inc

CFRNYSE

SectorFinancials

IndustryBanks - Regional

Beta (adjusted)0.68

Intrinsic Value

Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet.

Market Price $153.48Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence

Market Cap $9.5B

Enterprise Value $3.3B

Shares Outstanding 62.5M diluted

Next Earnings Date22 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend31 Aug 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Cullen/Frost entered the second half of 2026 with balanced organic growth, a stable 3.75% net interest margin, double-digit year-over-year EPS growth and substantial regulatory capital. Those strengths are offset by a material sequential increase in non-accrual loans and a market price already near the upper part of the issuer-reported 52-week range. The resulting risk/reward is balanced rather than compelling.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets14 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$141.00

Mean target$169.50

High · most bullish analyst$195.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$141.0020%

Further deterioration in non-accrual loans, weaker Texas borrower conditions, rate volatility or pressure from energy, trade and geopolitical uncertainty causes higher credit costs and a lower valuation. The price target uses the issuer-hosted 52-week low as a documented downside landmark.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$169.5055%

Matches the consensus mean

Loan and deposit growth continue at moderate rates, net interest margin remains broadly stable and capital stays strong, but higher non-accrual balances constrain rerating.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$195.0025%

Sustained Texas customer acquisition, 7.4% average-loan growth, 5.9% household growth, expanding fee income and continued branch productivity support further earnings growth while credit losses remain manageable. The price target uses the issuer-hosted 52-week high as a non-invented upside landmark.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Second-quarter 2026 average loans grew 7.4% year over year, average deposits grew 2.1%, and customer households increased 5.9%.
Second-quarter diluted EPS increased 13% year over year to $2.70, while first-half diluted EPS increased 14.1% to $5.35.
The 13.95% CET1 ratio remained above well-capitalized requirements, while the company continued dividends and share repurchases.

Key Investment Risks

Non-accrual loans and loans held for sale increased to $112.7 million, or 0.49% of loans, from $72.4 million and 0.32% in the prior quarter.
Expansion and technology investment can pressure operating leverage; second-quarter salaries and wages rose 6.7% and technology, furniture and equipment expense rose 4.9% year over year.
The Texas-focused loan and deposit franchise remains exposed to regional economic conditions, energy-price volatility, interest-rate changes, trade policy and geopolitical disruption.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Quality Pillars Members

This section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown.

Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.