CoreCivic Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

CoreCivic Inc

CXWNYSE

SectorIndustrials

IndustrySecurity & Protection Services

Beta (adjusted)0.72

Intrinsic Value $15.32median of 1 methodbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $32.49Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Significantly overvaluedIntrinsic value is 53% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

marker beyond scale (-53%)

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Market Cap $3.2B

Enterprise Value $4.5B

Shares Outstanding 96.8M diluted

Next Earnings Date4 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend31 Mar 2020

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

CoreCivic is experiencing strong operational momentum driven by the reactivation of previously idle facilities and strategic diversification. The company's Q1 2026 financial results significantly exceeded expectations, with revenue up 25.8% year-over-year to $614.7 million and adjusted EPS rising 74% to $0.40. This growth is underpinned by robust demand from federal partners, particularly ICE, which represents a major portion of the company's revenue mix. Furthermore, the recent $148 million acquisition of Clinical Solutions Pharmacy (CSP) provides immediate cash flow diversification into high-margin correctional healthcare services. Despite political and regulatory risks inherent to private detention, CoreCivic's strong balance sheet, active share repurchase program, and raised full-year 2026 guidance support a bullish outlook.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets5 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$40.00

Mean target$41.80

High · most bullish analyst$45.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

The bear case involves a significant shift in federal immigration policy or budget allocations that reduces ICE detainee populations and contract utilization. Operational headwinds, such as persistent labor shortages and wage inflation, compress facility operating margins. Additionally, legal or regulatory challenges could delay facility intakes or lead to contract terminations, impacting cash flows and leverage metrics.

Base CaseCentral scenario

The base case assumes steady facility utilization and successful ramp-up of newly activated facilities, including California City, Diamondback, and the Midwest Regional Reception Center. The integration of Clinical Solutions Pharmacy (CSP) proceeds smoothly, contributing $0.03 to $0.05 to 2026 EPS. Federal demand remains robust through the second half of 2026, allowing CoreCivic to achieve its raised full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $453.8 million to $461.8 million and diluted EPS of $1.49 to $1.59.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Strong top-line and bottom-line growth driven by the activation of four previously idle facilities and the Farmville Detention Center acquisition.
Strategic revenue diversification through the acquisition of Clinical Solutions Pharmacy (CSP), entering the growing correctional healthcare market.
Robust capital return program, having repurchased 2.3 million shares in Q1 2026 and 28.1 million shares cumulatively since 2022.
Raised full-year 2026 financial guidance reflecting strong operational execution and incremental contributions from the Midwest Regional Reception Center.

Key Investment Risks

High concentration of revenue from federal government partners, particularly ICE and the U.S. Marshals Service, exposing the company to policy and political shifts.
Operational risks including labor shortages, wage inflation, and rising supply costs that could compress operating margins.
Potential legal and regulatory challenges, as evidenced by the temporary delays in activating the Midwest Regional Reception Center due to local permit disputes.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

A material change in federal administration policies leading to a phase-out or severe restriction of private detention contracts.
Failure to integrate the Clinical Solutions Pharmacy acquisition or realize projected financial contributions.
A significant increase in leverage or breach of debt covenants under the Bank Credit Facility.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.