ConocoPhillipsCOP
Price$127.06Intrinsic value$135.306% above price

Qualitative Analysis

Business overview

Business Overview

ConocoPhillips is a leading global exploration and production (E&P) company, operating as a pure-play powerhouse in the oil and gas sector. Headquartered in Houston, Texas, the company manages a highly diversified asset portfolio that spans conventional oil, tight oil, shale gas, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and oil sands. Its primary production engines are located in North America—specifically the Lower 48 states (Permian, Eagle Ford, and Bakken basins), Alaska, and Canada—complemented by international operations in Europe, the Asia-Pacific region, and the Middle East. ConocoPhillips focuses on maintaining a low cost of supply and low greenhouse gas (GHG) intensity across its operations to ensure long-term resilience and competitiveness.

Research as of 29 Jul 2026

Strategic Initiatives

Growth programs, investments, and their expected impact

AI-assisted
Willow Alaska developmentGrowth

Develop the Willow project in Alaska as a major long-life production platform. Following the 2026 winter construction season, the project was 50% complete.

Expected impact: ConocoPhillips has disclosed estimated peak production of 180,000 barrels of oil per day, creating a material new source of Alaska output.

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InvestmentUpdated total project-capital guidance is $8.5 billion to $9.0 billion.
TimelineFirst oil is expected in early 2029.
Global LNG portfolio expansionExpansion

Advance the North Field East and North Field South equity projects in Qatar and Port Arthur LNG on the U.S. Gulf Coast while expanding long-term third-party supply and commercial offtake. Total contracted LNG offtake reached 12 MTPA by August 2026.

Expected impact: Adds geographically diversified LNG supply and sales optionality while moving the commercial portfolio toward the company's stated 10-15 MTPA offtake ambition.

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InvestmentTotal equity-LNG project-capital guidance was reduced to $3.4 billion after a $0.6 billion credit against Port Arthur spending.
TimelineNorth Field East startup is expected in the second half of 2026; Port Arthur Phase 2 and Rio Grande Train 5 commercial agreements are expected to commence in 2030 and 2031, respectively, subject to project execution and applicable conditions.
Company-wide cost and margin transformationEfficiency

Apply scale, technology, operating efficiencies and organizational simplification to reduce costs and improve margins following completion of the Marathon Oil integration.

Expected impact: More than $1 billion of incremental company-wide cost reductions and margin enhancements, supporting the expected $7 billion increase in free cash flow by 2029.

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TimelineTargeted for delivery on a run-rate basis by year-end 2026.
Kirkuk-area oil-field redevelopmentGrowth

Acquire a 42% interest in BP ECKL and participate with bp and the Government of Iraq in rehabilitating, redeveloping and optimizing the producing Baba and Avanah domes and the Bai Hassan, Jambur and Khabbaz fields.

Expected impact: Provides capital-efficient access to an initial gross recoverable resource exceeding 3 billion BOE, an existing production base and additional exploration potential.

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InvestmentThe transaction is not expected to require significant capital contributions from ConocoPhillips.
TimelineClosing is expected by year-end 2026, subject to regulatory approvals and customary conditions.

Mergers, Acquisitions & Partnerships

Recent deals and strategic collaborations

AI-assisted

Recent Acquisitions

Marathon Oil Corporation$22.5B
Announced 29 May 2024

The all-stock acquisition added complementary, low-cost-of-supply inventory adjacent to ConocoPhillips' U.S. unconventional operations, including more than 2 billion barrels of identified resource with an estimated average point-forward cost of supply below $30 per barrel WTI.

Financial impact: The transaction was presented as immediately accretive to earnings, cash from operations, free cash flow and return of capital per share. By year-end 2025, ConocoPhillips had captured more than $1 billion of run-rate synergies and approximately $1 billion of one-time benefits.

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Strategic Partnerships

bpProposed equity joint venture for redevelopment of producing Kirkuk-area oil fields in northern Iraq.

The arrangement gives ConocoPhillips a proposed 42% interest in BP ECKL and access to a material, long-life conventional resource base with existing production and exploration upside.

Terms: ConocoPhillips is not expected to make significant capital contributions; remuneration is linked to its proportionate share of incremental production and costs. The transaction terms did not disclose a purchase price.

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QatarEnergyEquity LNG joint ventures and long-term LNG supply agreements covering the North Field East and North Field South projects.

The partnership supplies ConocoPhillips' global LNG portfolio and supports long-term deliveries to Europe, including Germany.

Terms: ConocoPhillips holds 3.125% of North Field East and 6.25% of North Field South and has contracted terminal services at the German LNG Terminal for 15 years.

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AI-assisted, source-linked narrative; figures from company filings (SEC EDGAR) and market data. Dates shown per section. Not investment advice. Terms of Use.