ConocoPhillips Dossier
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SectorEnergy IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production Beta (adjusted)0.42 Intrinsic Value $135.30median of 6 methods · middle span $98-$226based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $127.06Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 6% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $152.6B Enterprise Value $168.9B Shares Outstanding 1.2B diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend17 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary ConocoPhillips entered the second half of 2026 with strong cash generation, record Permian production, increased repurchases, USD 8.1 billion of cash and short-term investments, completion of its USD 5 billion disposition objective, and reaffirmed full-year guidance. The counterbalance is weaker underlying production caused principally by Qatar disruption and higher Surmont royalties, substantial capital requirements, commodity-price sensitivity and increased geopolitical exposure. Valuation upside could not be verified; a neutral Hold is therefore more defensible than a valuation-dependent Buy or Sell. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$126.00 Mean target$144.50 High · most bullish analyst$189.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $126.0025% Prolonged Middle East disruption, weaker commodity realizations, project-cost inflation or execution delays push production below guidance or capital spending above the updated range. These outcomes would weaken cash available for repurchases and dividends and delay the 2029 free-cash-flow objective. Base CaseCentral scenario $144.5057% Matches the consensus meanConocoPhillips delivers production and capital spending within reaffirmed 2026 guidance, returns approximately 45% of cash from operations to shareholders, and progresses major projects while Qatar-related weakness is partly offset by Lower 48 execution. Bull CaseUpside scenario $189.0018% Operations in Qatar normalize, record Permian performance persists, the expanded 12 MTPA LNG offtake portfolio improves long-duration cash-flow visibility, and disciplined execution keeps ConocoPhillips on course for its stated USD 7 billion incremental free-cash-flow inflection by 2029. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |