Churchill Downs Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Churchill Downs Inc

CHDNNASDAQ

SectorConsumer Discretionary

IndustryGambling

Beta (adjusted)0.78

Intrinsic Value $143.33median of 6 methods · middle span $113-$251based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $74.82Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 92% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

marker beyond scale (+92%)

Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence

Market Cap $5.2B

Enterprise Value $9.8B

Shares Outstanding 68.8M diluted

Moat Rating Narrow

Next Earnings Date28 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend5 Dec 2025

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Churchill Downs Inc. (CDI) represents a highly resilient, diversified gaming and entertainment business anchored by its irreplaceable flagship asset, the Kentucky Derby. The company's strategic pivot toward high-margin Historical Racing Machine (HRM) venues in Kentucky, Virginia, and New Hampshire continues to drive robust top-line and Adjusted EBITDA growth, offsetting temporary softness in regional casino gaming. With a disciplined capital allocation strategy, a strong balance sheet (net bank leverage reduced to 3.8x), and high-return organic expansion projects (such as the Rockingham Grand Casino and the newly acquired Preakness Stakes IP), CDI is well-positioned to deliver superior long-term total shareholder returns.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets11 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$100.00

Mean target$131.64

High · most bullish analyst$157.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$100.0015%

Macroeconomic headwinds and inflationary pressures lead to a contraction in discretionary consumer spending, negatively impacting regional casino visitation and wagering handles. Regulatory hurdles or delays in New Hampshire and Virginia projects, coupled with rising financing costs, compress operating margins and stall earnings growth.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$131.6460%

Matches the consensus mean

Steady mid-single-digit organic revenue growth driven by continued strong performance of Derby Week and incremental contributions from newly opened HRM venues (e.g., Marshall Yards). Capital expenditures remain disciplined, and the Rockingham Grand Casino project progresses on schedule for its mid-2027 opening, supporting a steady upward trajectory in free cash flow and consistent dividend increases.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$157.0025%

Accelerated expansion of the HRM footprint across key states, combined with highly accretive monetization of the newly acquired Preakness Stakes IP, drives double-digit EBITDA growth. Additionally, a successful spin-off or sale of slower-growth regional casinos unlocks significant equity value and re-rates the stock toward pure-play digital and high-growth entertainment multiples.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Irreplaceable flagship asset in the Kentucky Derby, which continues to set all-time records in wagering handle and viewership, providing highly defensive, recurring cash flows.
High-growth, high-margin Historical Racing Machine (HRM) business model that acts as a powerful growth engine with strong geographic barriers to entry.
Proven track record of disciplined capital allocation, including 15 consecutive years of increased dividend payments and opportunistic share repurchases.
Strategic acquisition of the Preakness Stakes IP, consolidating ownership of two of the three Triple Crown horse racing events.

Key Investment Risks

Exposure to consumer discretionary spending cycles, which could soften regional casino and wagering demand during economic downturns.
Regulatory and legislative risks surrounding horse racing, sports betting, and historical racing machine operations across various state jurisdictions.
Execution risks associated with large-scale capital projects, including the $180-$200 million Rockingham Grand Casino development.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

A material decline in Kentucky Derby week wagering handle or national television viewership.
Adverse regulatory changes or tax rate increases targeting Historical Racing Machines in Kentucky or Virginia.
Significant cost overruns or multi-quarter delays in the construction and opening of the Rockingham Grand Casino.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Quality Pillars Members

This section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown.

Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.