Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc

CMGNYSE

SectorConsumer Discretionary

IndustryRestaurants

Beta (adjusted)0.96

Intrinsic Value $34.46median of 6 methods · middle span $28-$54based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $32.32Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 7% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $40.9B

Enterprise Value $40.7B

Shares Outstanding 1.3B diluted

Moat Rating Wide

Next Earnings Date28 Oct 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Chipotle's Q2 2026 operating momentum improved, with 2.2% comparable-sales growth, positive transaction growth, rapid restaurant development, and a higher digital mix. These strengths are balanced by restaurant-level margin compression, higher food and labor costs, consumer-demand uncertainty, and an unresolved public-health investigation whose possible financial impact was excluded from the July outlook.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets32 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$35.00

Mean target$43.80

High · most bullish analyst$52.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$35.0019%

Food-safety concerns or weaker consumer demand reverse transaction momentum, while elevated ingredient and labor costs keep restaurant-level margin below the Q2 2026 baseline. Development delays could also cause openings to fall below the 350-restaurant guidance floor, reducing the unit-growth contribution to revenue.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$43.8058%

Matches the consensus mean

Chipotle delivers low-single-digit FY2026 comparable-sales growth and remains within its 350-370 opening range, but margin recovery is gradual because beef, freight, labor, marketing, and other operating costs remain elevated. The salmonella investigation does not become a lasting national traffic problem.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$52.0023%

Comparable sales remain positive and meet or exceed the low-single-digit FY2026 outlook, transaction growth persists, the company completes 350-370 openings, and Chipotlane-heavy development supports attractive new-store performance. Stabilization of food and labor costs would permit restaurant-level margin recovery while digital engagement and menu innovation support traffic.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Q2 2026 revenue increased 9.3%, comparable restaurant sales increased 2.2%, and transactions increased 1.0%, indicating improving demand momentum.
Chipotle opened 149 company-owned restaurants during the first half of 2026, and management guided to 350-370 total FY2026 openings with approximately 80% of new company-owned restaurants expected to include a Chipotlane.
Digital sales represented 38.3% of Q2 food and beverage revenue, up from 35.5% in the prior-year quarter, preserving a large convenience-oriented sales channel.

Key Investment Risks

Restaurant-level operating margin declined to 25.2% from 27.4% year over year as food, labor, occupancy, and other operating costs consumed a larger share of revenue.
The August 2026 salmonella investigation creates traffic and brand uncertainty; Chipotle stated that its July 29 guidance did not include a financial impact from the matter.
Management identified consumer-environment headwinds, food-safety concerns, geopolitical developments, commodity inflation, wage inflation, and execution of a large development pipeline as material uncertainties.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.