Cheesecake Factory Inc Dossier
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SectorConsumer Discretionary IndustryRestaurants Beta (adjusted)1.02 Intrinsic Value $76.36median of 6 methods · middle span $41-$109based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $107.95Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 29% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $5.4B Enterprise Value $5.8B Shares Outstanding 48.3M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date27 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend11 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated (NASDAQ: CAKE) continues to demonstrate operational resilience, highlighted by a solid Q1 2026 performance where revenues and adjusted EPS beat consensus expectations. The core brand's comparable sales grew 1.6% year-over-year, outperforming the broader casual dining industry, and average unit volumes reached a record annualized rate of $12.8 million. However, the stock has recently run up to new 52-week highs near $76, which is significantly above the consensus analyst price target of approximately $64.94. While the company's long-term unit expansion plan (targeting up to 26 new openings in 2026) and the early success of the Cheesecake Rewards app are positive catalysts, near-term upside appears limited. This valuation cap is compounded by margin headwinds at North Italia (where margins fell to 14.8% due to sales deleverage) and broader macroeconomic uncertainties affecting consumer discretionary spending. Consequently, a Hold recommendation is warranted as the current stock price fully reflects its high-quality operational execution. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$60.00 Mean target$90.80 High · most bullish analyst$104.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario Macroeconomic pressures and persistent wage inflation squeeze restaurant-level margins. Core brand comparable sales turn negative as consumers pull back on experiential dining. North Italia's recovery plan stalls, leading to further margin erosion. Delays in construction and permitting limit new restaurant openings to under 20 units for the year, causing FY 2026 revenues to fall below the guided range and compressing net income margins below 4.5%. Base CaseCentral scenario The core Cheesecake Factory brand maintains steady comparable sales growth of 1.0% to 2.0%, supported by stable traffic and the incremental benefits of the Cheesecake Rewards app. The company successfully opens 22 to 26 new restaurants in FY 2026, driving full-year revenues to approximately $3.91 billion. North Italia margins stabilize as menu refreshes take hold, and overall net income margin remains steady at around 5.0%. Capital allocation continues to favor steady shareholder returns through dividends and opportunistic share repurchases. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |