Charles Schwab Corp Dossier - Source-backed chat

Charles Schwab Corp

SCHWNYSE

SectorFinancials

IndustryInvestment Banking & Brokerage

Beta (adjusted)0.84

Intrinsic Value $166.56median of 6 methods · middle span $100-$449based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $98.37Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 69% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

marker beyond scale (+69%)

Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence

Market Cap $170.1B

Enterprise Value $152.5B

Shares Outstanding 1.7B diluted

Moat Rating Wide

Next Earnings Date15 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend14 Aug 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Schwab entered the second half of 2026 with strong operating momentum: second-quarter revenue and earnings reached records, net interest margin improved sequentially, and July core net new assets set a July record. The franchise continues to add accounts, deepen managed-investing relationships and generate substantial organic assets. The balanced recommendation reflects uncertainty about the durability of unusually strong trading and margin activity, sensitivity of spread income to rates and client cash allocation.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets20 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$91.00

Mean target$125.00

High · most bullish analyst$145.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$91.0020%

Client cash sorting or an adverse rate environment compresses net interest margin, market weakness reduces fee-bearing assets, and elevated trading and margin-loan activity normalizes sharply. Lower organic flows or capital pressure would further constrain earnings and capital returns.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$125.0055%

Matches the consensus mean

Asset gathering remains healthy but normalizes from the strongest 2026 months. Net interest margin remains near recent levels, while asset-management fees and account growth offset some normalization in trading activity.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$145.0025%

Sustained organic asset gathering, continued growth in advice and lending, resilient transactional cash and further operating leverage extend the 2026 earnings momentum. Strong engagement and product expansion allow Schwab to monetize its growing client base without a material deterioration in capital ratios.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

July 2026 core net new assets reached a July record of $58.1 billion, while total client assets were $13.04 trillion and active brokerage accounts reached 39.94 million.
Second-quarter net revenue increased 21% year over year to $7.1 billion, GAAP diluted EPS increased 43% to $1.54, and net interest margin expanded sequentially to 3.00%.
Second-quarter managed-investing net flows grew 53% year over year, demonstrating deeper client relationships beyond transaction-based brokerage activity.

Key Investment Risks

Transactional sweep cash can move materially with seasonality and client allocation decisions, creating uncertainty for balance-sheet funding and spread income.
July margin balances reached $169.9 billion and recent trading activity was elevated, exposing revenue and credit-related activity to market-cycle normalization.
Earnings remain sensitive to interest rates, funding costs and capital capacity; the adjusted Tier 1 leverage ratio was 6.8% at June 30, 2026.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.