CF Industries Holdings Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

CF Industries Holdings Inc

CFNYSE

SectorMaterials

IndustryAgricultural Inputs

Beta (adjusted)0.60

Intrinsic Value $133.39median of 5 methods · middle span $100-$188based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $114.54Price as of 1 Oct 2026

UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 16% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $17.3B

Enterprise Value $18.1B

Shares Outstanding 150.5M diluted

Moat Rating Wide

Next Earnings Date4 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend14 Aug 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

CF Industries combines strong operational execution and a constructive near-term nitrogen market with significant longer-term optionality from Blue Point One. The balance is moderated by commodity-price cyclicality, natural-gas exposure, the prolonged Yazoo City outage and execution risk around a large new low-carbon-ammonia facility.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets19 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$98.00

Mean target$125.25

High · most bullish analyst$195.72

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$98.0025%

Global nitrogen supply recovers faster than expected, Chinese exports or restored Middle East supply weaken pricing, North American natural-gas costs rise, Yazoo City restoration slips, or Blue Point One encounters schedule or operating-performance problems.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$125.2556%

Matches the consensus mean

CF broadly delivers approximately 9.5 million tons of gross ammonia production in 2026, nitrogen demand remains constructive but pricing continues to fluctuate, Yazoo City resumes production during 2027, and Blue Point One progresses toward 2029 startup.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$195.7219%

Nitrogen supply remains constrained through 2027, CF sustains high utilization and achieves its 2026 ammonia-production outlook, Yazoo City returns during the first half of 2027, and Blue Point One starts in 2029 with its planned 1.4-million-metric-ton annual capacity and 98% production-process CO2 capture rate.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

First-half operations achieved 98% utilization of available ammonia capacity, supporting management's approximately 9.5-million-ton full-year production outlook.
Management expects constrained global nitrogen supply and constructive demand through the end of 2026 and into 2027.
Blue Point One is expected to add 1.4 million metric tons of annual ammonia capacity in 2029 while capturing and permanently sequestering 98% of production-process CO2.

Key Investment Risks

Nitrogen products are global commodities, leaving realized prices exposed to supply disruptions, trade flows, agricultural demand and subsequent normalization.
Natural gas is a critical production input, and higher realized gas costs can offset stronger nitrogen selling prices.
The Yazoo City Complex remains out of operation, with the identified production units not expected to resume until the first half of 2027.
Blue Point One faces construction, schedule, partner-funding, technology, sequestration-infrastructure and future low-carbon-ammonia demand risks.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.