Carpenter Technology Corp Dossier
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SectorIndustrials IndustryMetal Fabrication Beta (adjusted)1.19 Intrinsic Value $440.48median of 6 methods · middle span $89-$568based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $383.69Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 15% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $19B Enterprise Value $19.3B Shares Outstanding 50.3M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date22 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend25 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Carpenter Technology entered fiscal 2027 with record fiscal 2026 operating income, expanding Specialty Alloys Operations profitability, accelerating aerospace and defense demand, and management guidance for further operating-income and cash-flow growth. The fiscal 2029 target and brownfield expansion create additional upside, while the new $1.0 billion repurchase authorization indicates confidence and substantial capital-return capacity. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$540.00 Mean target$625.88 High · most bullish analyst$700.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $540.0020% The bear case assumes operating income or adjusted free cash flow falls below the fiscal 2027 guidance floors because of aerospace supply-chain disruption, weaker customer build rates, raw-material or energy pressure, adverse mix, production constraints, or brownfield-project delays. The concentration of specialized manufacturing assets could amplify an operational disruption. Base CaseCentral scenario $625.8856% Matches the consensus meanThe base case assumes Carpenter delivers within its fiscal 2027 operating-income and adjusted-free-cash-flow ranges, while productivity, product mix, pricing, and aerospace demand continue to support growth. Brownfield capacity begins contributing in fiscal 2028, but execution and end-market variability prevent assuming the upper end of the fiscal 2029 target. Bull CaseUpside scenario $700.0024% The bull case assumes operating income reaches the upper portion of the fiscal 2027 outlook and adjusted free cash flow approaches the upper portion of guidance, followed by successful brownfield capacity additions beginning in fiscal 2028 and progress toward the upper end of the fiscal 2029 operating-income target. Sustained aerospace and defense demand, favorable mix, pricing, productivity, and execution of the additional repurchase authorization would reinforce per-share value creation. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |