Burlington Stores Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Burlington Stores Inc

BURLNYSE

SectorConsumer Discretionary

IndustryApparel Retail

Beta (adjusted)1.31

Intrinsic Value $297.11median of 6 methods · middle span $230-$357based on filings through 1 Aug 2026

Market Price $275.32Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 8% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $17.3B

Enterprise Value $18.6B

Shares Outstanding 64.2M diluted

Moat Rating Wide

Next Earnings Date27 Nov 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Burlington Stores continues to demonstrate robust execution of its off-price retail model, driven by its 'Burlington 2.0' strategy. The company's focus on smaller, more productive store formats, leaner inventory management, and merchandise elevation has yielded consistent double-digit earnings growth. Despite macroeconomic uncertainties, value-focused consumer demand remains a strong tailwind, positioning Burlington to capture market share through its accelerated store expansion plan.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets16 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$300.00

Mean target$380.56

High · most bullish analyst$440.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$310.00

Rapid physical expansion leads to cannibalization and elevated pre-opening and occupancy costs. A severe consumer slowdown or aggressive promotional discounting by competitors pressures merchandise margins, causing comparable store sales to fall flat or turn negative, with adjusted EPS dropping below $11.00.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$367.07

Burlington successfully executes its raised FY2026 guidance, achieving total sales growth of 9% to 11% and comparable store sales growth of 2% to 4%. Net new store openings reach the targeted 115 stores, and adjusted EBIT margin expands by 10 to 30 basis points, delivering adjusted EPS within the guided range of $11.45 to $11.80.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$435.00

Accelerated store openings (115 net new stores in FY2026) and successful Store Experience 2.0 retrofits drive higher-than-expected sales productivity. Stronger trade-down behavior from middle-income consumers boosts comparable store sales above the 4% high-end guidance, leading to significant operating leverage and adjusted EPS exceeding $11.80.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Consistent execution with 14 consecutive quarters of double-digit adjusted EPS growth as of Q1 FY2026.
Successful format optimization through smaller, highly productive store footprints that reduce occupancy costs.
Strong liquidity profile with approximately $1.7 billion in total liquidity and no outstanding ABL borrowings as of Q1 FY2026.
Favorable secular tailwinds from value-conscious consumer shopping behavior amid economic uncertainty.

Key Investment Risks

Execution risks associated with rapid physical store expansion (targeting 115 net new stores annually).
Potential margin pressure from rising supply chain, freight, or product sourcing costs.
High sensitivity to consumer discretionary spending trends and competitive promotional environments.
Relatively high debt levels compared to some off-price peers, which could impact financial flexibility.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Comparable store sales growth turning negative for two consecutive quarters.
Significant contraction in gross margin rate due to inventory write-downs or severe promotional discounting.
A material slowdown or halt in the net new store opening pipeline.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.