Brilliant Earth Group Inc Dossier
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SectorConsumer Discretionary IndustrySpecialty Retail Beta (adjusted)1.25 Intrinsic Value Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet. Market Price $1.39Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $141.6M Enterprise Value $66.6M Shares Outstanding 101.9M diluted Next Earnings Date4 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend22 Aug 2025 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Brilliant Earth Group, Inc. (BRLT) continues to establish itself as a leader in ethically sourced fine jewelry, leveraging a robust omnichannel model and a highly flexible, asset-light virtual inventory system. However, the company is currently navigating significant profitability headwinds. While Q1 2026 net sales grew 6% year-over-year to $99.5 million, gross margins compressed to 54.3% due to historically high precious metal prices and tariff impacts, leading to a negative Adjusted EBITDA of -$4.7 million. Given the near-term margin strains and cautious consumer discretionary spending, a Hold recommendation is warranted until there is clearer visibility on profitability recovery and stabilization of metal costs. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$1.50 Mean target$1.65 High · most bullish analyst$2.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 20 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $1.1015% The bear case reflects prolonged precious metal inflation and tariff pressures that continue to compress gross margins below 54%. Under this scenario, consumer demand for bridal and fine jewelry softens further due to macroeconomic headwinds, leading to persistent negative Adjusted EBITDA and cash outflows. Base CaseCentral scenario $1.6560% Matches the consensus meanThe base case assumes positive mid-single-digit net sales growth for FY 2026, in line with management guidance. Gross margins are expected to remain within the mid-50s range as selective price increases offset elevated metal costs. Adjusted EBITDA is projected to remain positive but slightly lower than 2025 levels, reflecting ongoing investments in brand building and showroom operations. Bull CaseUpside scenario $2.0025% The bull case is driven by rapid expansion of the high-margin fine jewelry segment, successful execution of the showroom rollout strategy (42 showrooms as of late 2025), and a swift recovery in gross margins as precious metal prices stabilize. Additionally, strong consumer resonance with the brand's validated SBTi net-zero targets and ethical sourcing could accelerate market share gains. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |