Bowman Consulting Group Ltd Dossier
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SectorIndustrials IndustryConstruction & Engineering Beta (adjusted)1.25 Intrinsic Value $20.39median of 6 methods · middle span $7-$45based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $42.59Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Significantly overvaluedIntrinsic value is 52% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (-52%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $738.2M Enterprise Value $772.9M Shares Outstanding 16.6M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date9 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Bowman Consulting Group Ltd. (BWMN) is a rapidly growing national engineering services firm that is successfully executing an acquisition-led expansion strategy alongside robust organic growth. The company's massive backlog expansion, driven by major public and private infrastructure contracts, provides high revenue visibility. Despite near-term GAAP profitability pressure from non-cash charges and acquisition integration costs, Bowman's upwardly revised 2026 guidance and strong demand in power, utilities, and public infrastructure support a compelling growth narrative. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$38.00 Mean target$47.67 High · most bullish analyst$58.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $16.6420% Integration bottlenecks, persistent labor shortages, or a broader economic slowdown in private land development delay project execution. Margin compression from rising integration costs and higher interest expenses on debt-funded acquisitions limit free cash flow, causing the stock to trade down toward its support levels. Base CaseCentral scenario $43.3150% Bowman successfully delivers on its raised full-year 2026 net revenue guidance of $520 million to $540 million and achieves adjusted EBITDA margins between 17.25% and 17.75%. Organic growth remains steady at 6-8%, and the company continues its disciplined M&A strategy while managing its expanded $250 million credit facility. Bull CaseUpside scenario $50.0030% Accelerated backlog conversion, higher-than-expected synergy capture from recent acquisitions (such as Smith & Associates), and continued federal infrastructure funding tailwinds drive revenue and margins to the high end of guidance. Operating leverage improves rapidly, leading to a significant re-rating of the stock. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |