Bloomin Brands Inc Dossier
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SectorConsumer Discretionary IndustryRestaurants Beta (adjusted)1.14 Intrinsic Value $10.64median of 6 methods · middle span $3-$17based on filings through 28 Jun 2026 Market Price $8.38Price as of 1 Oct 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 27% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $717.5M Enterprise Value $1.4B Shares Outstanding 86.2M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend19 Aug 2025 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Bloomin' Brands Inc. (BLMN) is navigating a complex turnaround strategy focused on improving guest experience, brand relevancy, and operational efficiency across its core concepts (Outback Steakhouse, Carrabba's Italian Grill, Bonefish Grill, and Fleming's). While Q1 2026 results showed positive signs of execution with a top-line beat and improved restaurant-level operating margins, the company remains constrained by high leverage (net-debt-to-EBITDA around 6x) and persistent industry-wide traffic headwinds. A 'Hold' recommendation reflects a balanced view of its low valuation multiples and high dividend yield against the risks of margin compression and debt service obligations. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$6.00 Mean target$8.67 High · most bullish analyst$11.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $6.0015% Consumer spending on casual dining weakens further, causing comparable restaurant sales to turn negative. Cost-saving measures fail to offset persistent 5% commodity inflation and labor pressures, compressing operating margins. High leverage limits financial flexibility, forcing a potential reduction in capital expenditures or a dividend cut to preserve liquidity. Base CaseCentral scenario $8.6760% Matches the consensus meanU.S. comparable restaurant sales grow modestly within the guided range of 0.5% to 2.5%. Restaurant-level margins stabilize around 14.0% as cost-saving initiatives offset mid-single-digit commodity and labor inflation. The company achieves its full-year 2026 adjusted diluted EPS guidance of $0.75 to $0.90, maintaining its dividend but making slow progress on absolute debt reduction. Bull CaseUpside scenario $11.0025% The turnaround strategy accelerates, driven by successful equipment upgrades and marketing initiatives that reverse the multi-year traffic decline. Comparable restaurant sales exceed the high end of guidance, driving restaurant-level operating margins back toward historical high-teens. Deleveraging occurs faster than expected as strong free cash flow is directed toward debt paydown, leading to a valuation multiple re-rating. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |