Blackbaud Inc Dossier
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SectorInformation Technology IndustrySoftware - Application Beta (adjusted)1.01 Intrinsic Value $76.65median of 6 methods · middle span $66-$143based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $42.55Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 80% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (+80%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $1.9B Enterprise Value $3B Shares Outstanding 45.3M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date28 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend27 Feb 2020 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Blackbaud is a highly stable, dominant vertical software provider for the social impact and nonprofit sectors. The company's transition to a cloud-first model and its aggressive share repurchase program (targeting at least 50% of cumulative free cash flow from 2026 to 2030) provide a strong floor for earnings per share growth. However, near-term organic revenue growth has decelerated to 4.2% in Q1 2026, and the company faces a larger-than-normal renewal cohort in 2026 that acts as a growth headwind. While the launch of agentic AI tools like the Fundraising Development Agent represents a long-term catalyst, near-term margins may experience temporary pressure from elevated AI investments. Consequently, a Hold rating is recommended as the market digests these mixed dynamics. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$45.00 Mean target$53.40 High · most bullish analyst$65.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $45.0020% The larger renewal cohort leads to higher absolute churn dollars, dragging organic revenue growth below the 4% floor. Macroeconomic pressures reduce nonprofit donations and transactional payment volumes, while heavy AI development costs compress margins, limiting free cash flow generation and slowing the pace of share repurchases. Base CaseCentral scenario $53.4050% Matches the consensus meanBlackbaud executes in line with its reaffirmed FY2026 guidance, delivering organic revenue growth of 4% to 4.5% and adjusted EBITDA of $430 million to $438 million. Churn remains stable despite the 40% larger renewal cohort, and the company successfully repurchases 5% to 10% of its outstanding common stock, supporting steady valuation multiples. Bull CaseUpside scenario $65.0030% Rapid adoption of the newly launched agentic AI products ('Agents for Good') drives higher-than-expected transactional and contractual recurring revenue. Operational leverage from legacy infrastructure rationalization and the Hyderabad Global Capability Center accelerates EBITDA margin expansion toward the 40% target ahead of schedule, while aggressive share buybacks drive double-digit EPS growth. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |