BHP Group Limited ADR Dossier
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SectorMaterials IndustryDiversified Metals & Mining Beta (adjusted)0.86 Intrinsic Value $52.50median of 5 methods · middle span $48-$55based on filings through 30 Jun 2025 Market Price $84.84Price as of 30 Sep 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 38% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $215.6B Enterprise Value $225.3B Shares Outstanding 5.1B diluted Moat Rating Wide Last ex-dividend6 Mar 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary BHP enters FY2027 with strong operating momentum: it reported record Western Australia Iron Ore production and shipments, approximately 2 million tonnes of annual copper production, approximately US$33 billion of Underlying EBITDA and net debt below US$9 billion. Its long-duration copper exposure and prospective Jansen potash production support the strategic case. A Hold recommendation is nevertheless appropriate because returns remain sensitive to commodity prices, Jansen Stage 1 now carries an US$8.4 billion investment estimate. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$60.00 Mean target$73.64 High · most bullish analyst$91.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $60.0021% Weaker commodity conditions coincide with copper production falling below the approximately 2-million-tonne FY2026 level or further Jansen cost escalation. The resulting pressure on earnings, leverage and distributions would weaken the investment case. Base CaseCentral scenario $73.6455% Matches the consensus meanBHP broadly sustains FY2026 operating performance while commodity prices fluctuate through the cycle. Copper and iron ore remain the principal earnings supports, and Jansen advances near its revised US$8.4 billion investment estimate and mid-CY2027 schedule. Bull CaseUpside scenario $91.0024% Operational reliability continues, copper demand benefits from electrification and digitalisation, annual copper output progresses toward BHP's approximately 2.5-million-tonne copper-equivalent ambition, and Jansen Stage 1 begins production on its revised mid-CY2027 schedule. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |