BayFirst Financial Corp Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryRegional Banks Beta (adjusted)0.57 Intrinsic Value Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet. Market Price $6.81Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Data confidenceNot applicable Market Cap $183.6M Enterprise Value $65M Shares Outstanding 27M diluted Next Earnings Date29 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend30 May 2025 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary BayFirst Financial Corp. (BAFN) is undergoing a major strategic pivot, transitioning away from its volatile nationwide SBA 7(a) lending model to focus on traditional community banking in the Tampa Bay region. While the company reported a substantial net loss of $5.7 million ($1.48 per share) in Q1 2026 due to legacy SBA servicing costs and credit provisions, it successfully secured an $80 million PIPE capital raise in April 2026. This capital injection is critical to restoring its regulatory capital ratios toward 'well-capitalized' levels. However, the conversion of the preferred stock will result in massive dilution for existing common shareholders (adding ~22.9 million shares to a pre-raise base of ~4.1 million). Investors should maintain a Hold stance until the dilution is fully digested, the preferred conversion is approved at the July 14, 2026 special meeting, and core community banking profitability begins to stabilize. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 20 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $3.50 Shareholders reject or delay the preferred stock conversion, leaving the bank in a prolonged state of capital stress and regulatory scrutiny. Core deposit outflows persist, forcing reliance on expensive wholesale funding. Credit quality in the remaining commercial loan portfolio deteriorates further, leading to elevated provisions that delay a return to profitability beyond 2027. Base CaseCentral scenario $5.50 The company successfully obtains shareholder approval for the Series D Preferred Stock conversion on July 14, 2026, fully integrating the $80 million capital raise. Net interest margins stabilize around 3.40%-3.50% as high-cost promotional deposits are phased out. Legacy SBA 7(a) credit losses and servicing expenses gradually decline, allowing the bank to return to profitability by late 2026 or early 2027, though EPS remains low due to the expanded share count. Bull CaseUpside scenario $8.00 The bank's strategic pivot away from SBA 7(a) lending leads to a faster-than-expected reduction in credit provisions and operating expenses. Core deposit growth accelerates, and net interest margins expand beyond 3.60% due to rapid rate cuts or successful deployment of the $80 million capital raise into high-yielding conventional community loans, driving a swift return to double-digit ROE by early 2027. Scenarios reflect our research view at the research date. Key Investment Merits
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Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |