Axia Energia ADR Dossier
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SectorUtilities IndustryElectric Utilities Beta (adjusted)0.48 Intrinsic Value $1.31median of 3 methodsbased on filings through 31 Dec 2024 Market Price $10.22Price as of 6 Aug 2026 Significantly overvaluedIntrinsic value is 87% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (-87%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $23.3B Shares Outstanding 1.4B diluted Next Earnings Date4 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend17 Nov 2025 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Axia entered the second half of 2026 with strong generation economics, accelerated investment and a substantial contracted transmission program. The issuer's analyst-coverage page reports an AXIA3 consensus target of R$65.22, but that target applies to the Brazilian underlying share rather than the OTC ADR in U.S. dollars. The ADR's move from the NYSE to OTC trading, the Form 15F process, hydroelectric sensitivity, a demanding R$12-R$14 billion annual investment program and the R$1.3 billion Piauí settlement justify a Hold rather than adopting the uniformly positive local-share analyst recommendations without adjustment for currency, liquidity and disclosure risk. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$13.00 Mean target$13.77 High · most bullish analyst$14.80 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $13.0020% The R$42.19 target is the lowest AXIA3 target published on the issuer's analyst-coverage page and is expressed in BRL per underlying local share, not USD per ADR. This case reflects weaker hydrology or GSF, underdelivery against the investment program, execution pressure on transmission projects, settlement-related cash demands and a persistent OTC liquidity or disclosure discount. Base CaseCentral scenario $13.7755% Matches the consensus meanThe base case assumes investment broadly follows the R$12-R$14 billion projection, GSF remains near management's disclosed seasonal projections and the transmission backlog progresses without material disruption. Bull CaseUpside scenario $14.8025% The R$79.00 target is the highest AXIA3 target published on the issuer's analyst-coverage page and is expressed in BRL per underlying local share, not USD per ADR. This case assumes successful delivery of contracted transmission projects, generation margins remaining resilient, investment reaching the disclosed range and OTC ADR trading remaining functional. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |