Ameris Bancorp Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryBanks - Regional Beta (adjusted)0.94 Intrinsic Value $57.53median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $79.52Price as of 30 Sep 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 28% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $5.3B Enterprise Value $5.2B Shares Outstanding 67.2M diluted Next Earnings Date23 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend30 Jun 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Ameris Bancorp (ABCB) continues to demonstrate robust operational performance, highlighted by strong commercial lending momentum and net interest margin expansion to 3.88% in Q1 2026. However, the investment narrative is currently clouded by a massive $79.95 million wrongful termination jury verdict awarded to former executive Patrick Byrne on June 12, 2026. While the bank plans to appeal, this legal overhang introduces significant capital and liquidity risks that offset its strong fundamental performance, justifying a Hold rating until there is more clarity on the appeal's outcome. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$88.00 Mean target$94.17 High · most bullish analyst$100.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $75.0020% The $79.95 million verdict is upheld in full, forcing a material charge to earnings that severely impacts capital ratios, restricts share buybacks, and leads to regulatory scrutiny over internal governance and incentive plans. Base CaseCentral scenario $94.1750% Matches the consensus meanThe legal battle drags on with moderate legal expenses, and the bank eventually settles or has the punitive damages ($62.9 million) reduced. Core banking operations remain highly profitable, with stable deposit costs and mid-single-digit loan growth. Bull CaseUpside scenario $98.0030% The appeal successfully vacates or drastically reduces the $79.95 million judgment, allowing the market to refocus on Ameris's strong organic loan growth, superior NIM compared to peers, and active capital return program via share repurchases. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |