American Express Co Dossier - Source-backed chat

American Express Co

AXPNYSE

SectorFinancials

IndustryConsumer Finance

Beta (adjusted)1.03

Intrinsic Value $263.23median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $304.10Price as of 30 Sep 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 13% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $205.4B

Enterprise Value $217.1B

Shares Outstanding 677M diluted

Next Earnings Date23 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend2 Jul 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

American Express entered the second half of 2026 with strong operating momentum: second-quarter revenue increased 10%, diluted EPS increased 11% to $4.53, and management raised full-year revenue-growth guidance to approximately 10% while maintaining EPS guidance of $17.30-$17.90. Its premium customer base, expanding fee revenue, resilient credit performance, and minimum 2.5% Stress Capital Buffer support durable earnings and capital returns. The counterweight is valuation: the last available issuer-posted closing price was $333.20 on August 28, 2026, leaving only moderate upside under the base scenario while elevated customer-engagement and operating investments can limit near-term operating leverage. A Hold recommendation therefore balances strong execution against a less forgiving entry price and cyclical credit risk.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets25 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$315.00

Mean target$375.86

High · most bullish analyst$450.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$270.0017%

Premium spending slows, revenue growth falls below the prior 8%-10% planning range, expenses remain elevated, and the Card Member loan net write-off rate rises materially above the second-quarter 2.0% level. The resulting earnings shortfall and lower investor risk tolerance drive valuation compression.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$375.8658%

Matches the consensus mean

Revenue growth remains close to management's approximately 10% outlook and 2026 EPS finishes within the $17.30-$17.90 range, but reinvestment absorbs part of the revenue upside and credit costs normalize gradually.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$425.0025%

Premium-card acquisition, billed-business growth, and fee income remain strong while credit losses stay near second-quarter levels. Revenue continues near double digits, operating leverage improves after current investments mature, and full-year EPS reaches or exceeds the top of management's range.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Second-quarter 2026 revenue reached $19.637 billion, up approximately 10% year over year, while diluted EPS increased to $4.53 from $4.08.
Net card fees reached $2.862 billion in the second quarter, up from $2.480 billion, demonstrating continued monetization of the premium membership model.
American Express retained the minimum 2.5% Stress Capital Buffer through September 30, 2027 and increased its quarterly common dividend by 16% to $0.95 in 2026.

Key Investment Risks

Second-quarter expenses rose to $14.482 billion from $12.901 billion, faster than the approximately 10% revenue increase, making the payoff from reinvestment an important execution variable.
The model combines payments exposure with substantial Card Member lending, so deterioration in consumer credit can raise write-offs and provisions even if spending remains resilient.
At the issuer-posted August 28 closing price of $333.20, the base scenario provides only moderate appreciation, increasing downside sensitivity to an EPS guidance miss.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.