American Electric Power Company, Inc. Dossier - Source-backed chat

American Electric Power Company, Inc.

AEPNASDAQ

SectorUtilities

IndustryElectric Utilities

Beta (adjusted)0.68

Intrinsic Value $123.80median of 6 methods · middle span $91-$175based on filings through 31 Mar 2026

Market Price $118.64Price as of 30 Sep 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 4% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $64.6B

Enterprise Value $113.8B

Shares Outstanding 549.9M diluted

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date29 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend10 Aug 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

AEP offers an unusually visible regulated-utility growth runway through its $78 billion 2026-2030 capital plan, 69 GW of contracted load additions and reaffirmed 7%-9% annual operating-earnings growth objective. Second-quarter execution supported a guidance increase, but the August 28 share price of $122.31 already reflects substantial optimism. Regulatory recovery, affordability, financing and infrastructure-delivery risks therefore balance the favorable demand outlook, supporting a Hold rather than a more aggressive rating.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets20 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$129.00

Mean target$144.95

High · most bullish analyst$173.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$129.0020%

Large-load projects are delayed or cancelled, tariff protections prove insufficient, or regulatory and construction setbacks weaken capital recovery and reduce earnings guidance. Higher financing or equipment costs could compound the effect because AEP must deliver a very large infrastructure program while maintaining affordability and reliability.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$144.9555%

Matches the consensus mean

AEP executes broadly within its raised 2026 operating EPS range and retains its 7%-9% long-term growth objective, while investors continue to discount normal regulatory, financing and construction risks. The resulting value is modestly above the August 28 market price.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$173.0025%

Contracted data-center and industrial demand converts into service on schedule, approved large-load tariffs and take-or-pay contracts protect existing customers, and transmission, distribution and generation investments expand without material regulatory or supply-chain delays. Sustained guidance delivery and realization of capital opportunities beyond the announced plan could return the shares toward their recent annual high.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

AEP raised 2026 operating EPS guidance to $6.25-$6.55 after first-half performance and reaffirmed a 7%-9% annual operating-earnings growth objective through 2030.
Contracted load additions reached 69 GW through 2030 after six incremental GW were added in the second quarter, providing unusually strong demand visibility.
The $78 billion five-year capital plan is supplemented by more than $10 billion of identified incremental opportunities, while approximately 55% of operating earnings comes from transmission-related predictable revenues.

Key Investment Risks

The scale of the capital program exposes AEP to construction delays, equipment and labor constraints, financing costs and regulatory cost-recovery risk.
Customer-affordability pressure could weaken regulatory outcomes even though AEP expects large-load agreements and federal financing to provide material offsets and savings.
The growth thesis increasingly depends on timely realization of large-load commitments and the generation and transmission capacity required to serve them.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.