Ameren Corp Dossier
|
SectorUtilities IndustryMulti-Utilities Beta (adjusted)0.64 Intrinsic Value $111.54median of 6 methods · middle span $79-$121based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $99.38Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 12% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $27.5B Enterprise Value $48.1B Shares Outstanding 279.3M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date4 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend8 Sep 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Ameren offers a visible regulated-utility growth program supported by $31.8 billion of planned 2026-2030 infrastructure investment, projected rate-base growth of approximately 10.6% annually, and management's 6%-8% EPS growth objective. First-half 2026 diluted EPS increased to $2.41 from $2.08, and the $5.25-$5.45 full-year guidance range was reaffirmed. The dividend has increased for 13 consecutive years and now annualizes to $3.00 per share. However, at the August 28, 2026 closing price of $106.12, much of the dependable growth profile appears reflected in the shares, while regulatory recovery, financing costs, higher operations and maintenance expense, project execution, and realization of forecast data-center demand remain material swing factors. The resulting risk-adjusted view is Hold. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$108.00 Mean target$121.20 High · most bullish analyst$137.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $108.0024% Earnings fall below the 2026 guidance floor as regulatory recovery is delayed or reduced, operations and maintenance and interest costs remain elevated, or large-load and generation projects fail to progress as expected. Base CaseCentral scenario $121.2056% Matches the consensus meanAmeren delivers within its $5.25-$5.45 2026 EPS guidance range and progresses broadly in line with the midpoint of its 6%-8% long-term growth objective. Bull CaseUpside scenario $137.0020% Ameren executes the infrastructure plan on schedule, earns timely regulatory recovery, converts committed large-load demand into durable rate-base investment, and delivers near the upper end of its 6%-8% long-term EPS growth objective. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |