Altria Group Inc Dossier
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SectorConsumer Staples IndustryTobacco Beta (adjusted)0.63 Intrinsic Value $48.42median of 5 methods · middle span $36-$115based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $67.34Price as of 30 Sep 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 28% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $112.4B Enterprise Value $134.7B Shares Outstanding 1.7B diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date29 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend15 Jun 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Altria offers substantial shareholder income and resilient combustible-product economics, but those strengths are balanced by persistent cigarette-volume contraction, declining Marlboro category share and uneven smoke-free execution. First-half 2026 adjusted diluted EPS increased 4.9%, and management narrowed full-year guidance to $5.61-$5.72. The August dividend increase lifted the annualized rate to $4.44 per share. Conversely, adjusted second-quarter domestic cigarette shipments fell an estimated 4.5%, Marlboro's total-category share declined to 39.5%, oral-products adjusted operating companies income fell 8.0%, and management assumes NJOY ACE will not return during 2026. These offsetting factors support a Hold rather than an outright accumulation or disposal recommendation. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$58.00 Mean target$70.00 High · most bullish analyst$82.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $55.0020% Cigarette volume and Marlboro share deteriorate faster than pricing can offset, discount migration intensifies, oral-products profitability weakens further and smoke-free launches fail to compensate for NJOY ACE's continued absence. Regulatory or litigation costs could add further pressure. Base CaseCentral scenario $70.0055% Matches the consensus meanAltria delivers within its $5.61-$5.72 adjusted EPS guidance while combustible pricing broadly offsets volume pressure and smoke-free products improve only gradually. The increased $4.44 annualized dividend supports the shares, but cigarette decline, oral-profit pressure and the absence of NJOY ACE constrain material multiple expansion. Bull CaseUpside scenario $78.0025% Pricing and mix preserve smokeable profitability despite declining units, full-year EPS reaches the upper portion of guidance, and nationwide on! PLUS distribution converts into stronger oral-category share. Continued dividend growth and execution of the remaining repurchase authorization support a higher valuation. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |