Alamos Gold Inc Dossier
|
SectorMaterials IndustryGold Beta (adjusted)1.26 Intrinsic Value $88.71median of 6 methods · middle span $28-$124based on filings through 31 Dec 2025 Market Price $32.39Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 174% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (+174%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $13.6B Enterprise Value $13.1B Shares Outstanding 420.4M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date28 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend11 Jun 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Alamos offers a substantial, fully funded organic-growth pathway centered on the Island Gold District, where the planned expansion is expected to increase processing to 20,000 tonnes per day and support average annual production of 534,000 ounces during its first ten years. The longer-term plan targets approximately one million ounces of annual company-wide production by 2030. Near-term conviction is moderated by the reduction of 2026 consolidated production guidance to 510,000–560,000 ounces and the increase in all-in sustaining cost guidance to US$1,775–US$1,875 per ounce following operating setbacks at Young-Davidson and slower recoveries at Mulatos. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$38.00 Mean target$46.25 High · most bullish analyst$60.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $38.0020% Further production shortfalls, all-in sustaining costs above revised guidance, or delays to the Island Gold shaft and processing expansion would undermine the expected production-growth and cost-reduction trajectory. The bear reference level is the issuer-disclosed NYSE 52-week low as of August 28, 2026. Base CaseCentral scenario $46.2555% Matches the consensus meanThe base case assumes Alamos remains within revised 2026 guidance and advances the Island Gold shaft and mill expansion broadly on schedule, while near-term operating variability limits re-rating. Bull CaseUpside scenario $60.0025% Successful completion of the Island Gold shaft in the first quarter of 2027 and the 20,000-tonne-per-day district expansion in the first quarter of 2028 would materially de-risk the pathway toward 534,000 ounces of average district production and approximately one million company-wide ounces by 2030. The bull reference level is the issuer-disclosed NYSE 52-week high as of August 28, 2026. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |