AGNC Investment Corp Dossier
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SectorReal Estate IndustryREIT - Mortgage Beta (adjusted)1.21 Intrinsic Value $7.68median of 1 methodbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $9.07Price as of 30 Sep 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 15% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $10.8B Enterprise Value $97.9B Shares Outstanding 1.2B diluted Next Earnings Date22 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend31 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary AGNC enters the second half of 2026 with a constructive but balanced setup. Second-quarter tangible net book value increased to $8.58 per share, economic return on tangible common equity was 6.7%, and net spread and dollar roll income of $0.40 per share exceeded the $0.36 quarterly common dividend. Liquidity remained substantial at $7.5 billion, or 62% of tangible equity. These strengths are offset by 7.4x at-risk leverage, reliance on short-term repurchase funding, and material exposure to interest-rate and Agency MBS spread volatility. The resulting risk-reward supports a Hold rather than an unqualified Buy. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$10.00 Mean target$11.06 High · most bullish analyst$12.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $10.0026% Higher inflation, renewed geopolitical stress, or weaker demand for Agency MBS causes benchmark yields or mortgage spreads to rise. Base CaseCentral scenario $11.0656% Matches the consensus meanThe second-quarter operating profile broadly persists: the net interest spread remains near 2%, recurring net spread and dollar roll income approximately covers the quarterly dividend, and tangible net book value remains near its June 2026 level. Bull CaseUpside scenario $12.0018% Agency MBS supply-demand conditions remain favorable, mortgage spreads tighten, and funding costs stay controlled. Continued positive economic returns, stable dividend coverage, and tangible-book-value appreciation support an illustrative 12-month research price target of $11.00 per share. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |