Afya Ltd Dossier
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SectorConsumer Staples IndustryEducation & Training Services Beta (adjusted)0.57 Intrinsic Value $28.58median of 4 methods · middle span $19-$39based on filings through 31 Dec 2025 Market Price $12.04Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 137% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (+137%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $1.1B Enterprise Value $3.1B Shares Outstanding 90.5M diluted Moat Rating Narrow Next Earnings Date12 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend25 Mar 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Afya Ltd dominates Brazil's highly regulated medical education sector, leveraging its premium undergraduate medical degrees to cross-sell digital tools and continuing education to physicians. The company's core business benefits from a severe national shortage of doctors, ensuring near-perfect student occupancy and exceptional pricing power. This translates into robust financial performance, characterized by high EBITDA margins, strong cash conversion, and a defensive regulatory moat that generalist education providers cannot replicate. Despite near-term margin pressures from digital investments and regulatory complexities, Afya's integrated ecosystem positions it as the partner of choice for Brazilian physicians throughout their careers. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$14.17 Mean target$16.72 High · most bullish analyst$20.52 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario The bear case reflects potential regulatory headwinds, including a freeze on new medical seat authorizations by the MEC, adverse rulings on tax disputes (such as Prouni/FIES program changes), and persistent margin compression from aggressive marketing and technology investments. Slower macroeconomic recovery in Brazil could also weigh on the continuing education student intake. Base CaseCentral scenario The base case assumes steady organic expansion of medical seats (adding approximately 200 seats annually) and successful tuition increases outpacing inflation. The company is expected to meet its reaffirmed 2026 guidance, with net revenue reaching between R$3,950 million and R$4,100 million, and Adjusted EBITDA between R$1,700 million and R$1,800 million. Digital health solutions and continuing education segments will continue to mature, driving long-term margin stabilization. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |