AdvanSix Inc Dossier
|
SectorMaterials IndustryCommodity Chemicals Beta (adjusted)1.18 Intrinsic Value $26.49median of 3 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $15.92Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 66% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (+66%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $429.9M Enterprise Value $692.6M Shares Outstanding 27.1M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date6 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend19 May 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary AdvanSix Inc. (ASIX) is a leading integrated manufacturer of Nylon 6 materials, chemical intermediates, and ammonium sulfate fertilizers. While the company benefits from a highly integrated domestic value chain and a strong position in North American plant nutrients, it is currently facing severe margin compression. High feedstock cost inflation (specifically natural gas and sulfur) combined with weather-related disruptions and soft downstream demand in nylon and phenol has significantly pressured near-term profitability. Although management expects sequential earnings recovery in the latter half of 2026, the lack of pricing power relative to larger global peers and cyclical headwinds justify a cautious 'Hold' stance until margin recovery and cost pass-through efficiency are demonstrated. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$20.00 Mean target$23.50 High · most bullish analyst$27.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario The bear case reflects prolonged weakness in global phenol and caprolactam demand, persistent high input costs that cannot be passed through due to index-based pricing lags, and further operational or weather-related disruptions. This scenario leads to continued net losses, dividend sustainability concerns, and downward revisions to full-year EBITDA guidance. Base CaseCentral scenario The base case assumes that AdvanSix successfully navigates the current high-cost feedstock environment by recouping a large portion of its raw material cost inflation during the peak domestic planting season. Ammonium sulfate demand remains robust, and acetone margins hold near cycle averages. Capital expenditures decline in line with guidance, supporting positive free cash flow in the second half of 2026. Bull CaseUpside scenario AdvanSix's bull case is supported by its global low-cost position and vertically integrated caprolactam production, alongside its integrated ammonia and sulfuric acid platform which underpins its leadership in plant nutrients. Key catalysts include the expansion of granular fertilizer capacity through the SUSTAIN program (expected to reach full capacity by the end of 2026), a multi-year non-manpower fixed cost savings program targeting $30 million in annual savings, and potential monetization of 45Q carbon capture tax credits under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) of 2025. Additionally, the company benefits from durable competitive advantages, with approximately 90% of sales in the U.S. market insulating it from reciprocal tariffs, and anti-dumping duties on ammonium sulfate and acetone imports providing domestic market protection. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |