Zymeworks BC Inc Dossier
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SectorHealth Care IndustryBiotechnology Beta (adjusted)1.09 Intrinsic Value $8.83median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $26.49Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Significantly overvaluedIntrinsic value is 67% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (-67%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $1.9B Shares Outstanding 73.9M diluted Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Zymeworks Inc. represents a highly compelling, de-risked biotechnology investment transitioning from a pure-play clinical-stage developer to a hybrid royalty-aggregation and R&D engine. The company's lead asset, zanidatamab (Ziihera), has already achieved its first FDA approval in second-line biliary tract cancer (BTC) and is approaching a major near-term regulatory catalyst with an FDA PDUFA date of August 25, 2026, for first-line HER2-positive gastroesophageal adenocarcinoma (GEA). Approval in this indication would trigger a transformative $250.0 million milestone payment from partner Jazz Pharmaceuticals, significantly bolstering Zymeworks' balance sheet. Furthermore, the company has successfully monetized 30% of its future Ziihera royalties to Royalty Pharma for $250.0 million in non-recourse debt, demonstrating the high commercial value of its platform while retaining 70% of future royalties and 100% of milestone rights. Backed by a robust cash runway extending beyond 2028, disciplined cost management, and an innovative early-stage ADC pipeline (including ZW191 and ZW251), Zymeworks is well-positioned to deliver substantial long-term shareholder value. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$31.00 Mean target$40.33 High · most bullish analyst$58.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $14.0015% The FDA issues a Complete Response Letter (CRL) or delays the approval of zanidatamab in 1L GEA, deferring the anticipated $250.0 million milestone payment and causing near-term cash burn concerns. Early-stage clinical trials for ZW191 or ZW251 encounter safety signals or dose-limiting toxicities, slowing pipeline progression. Royalty revenues from the 2L BTC indication ramp up slower than expected, forcing the company to rely on debt or dilutive equity financing to fund long-term operations. Base CaseCentral scenario $40.3360% Matches the consensus meanZanidatamab receives FDA approval in 1L GEA in late Q3 2026, securing the $250.0 million milestone payment and extending the cash runway well past 2028. Commercial launch by Jazz Pharmaceuticals progresses steadily, with royalty revenues growing sequentially. Wholly-owned pipeline candidates ZW191 and ZW251 advance through Phase 1 trials with positive dose-optimization readouts, validating the proprietary topoisomerase 1 inhibitor payload platform. Bull CaseUpside scenario $58.0025% The FDA grants priority approval to zanidatamab in first-line HER2-positive GEA on or before the August 25, 2026 PDUFA date, triggering a $250.0 million milestone payment. Global rollouts in Europe, Japan, and China proceed rapidly, unlocking up to $440.0 million in total near-term regulatory milestones. Concurrently, ZW191 demonstrates best-in-class efficacy and safety in platinum-resistant ovarian cancer, attracting a lucrative co-development partnership. Royalty streams scale faster than anticipated, driving the company to sustainable profitability by late 2027. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |