Zscaler Inc Dossier
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SectorInformation Technology IndustrySystems Software Beta (adjusted)0.94 Intrinsic Value $385.43median of 3 methodsbased on filings through 30 Apr 2026 Market Price $199.42Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 93% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (+93%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $32.5B Enterprise Value $32.7B Shares Outstanding 160.2M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date24 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Zscaler enters its imminent FY2026 year-end report with strong operating momentum but meaningful execution questions. Q3 ARR and revenue each grew 25%, while non-GAAP operating margin reached 23%. However, acquired Red Canary ARR contributed four percentage points to reported ARR growth, and management reduced FY2026 free-cash-flow-margin guidance to 22.8%-23.3% because of higher capital investment. The Hold recommendation therefore reflects the balance of durable platform growth and improving non-GAAP profitability against organic-growth moderation, cash-flow pressure, execution risk, and the binary near-term risk of the September 3 earnings release rather than a valuation-based conclusion. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$145.00 Mean target$192.77 High · most bullish analyst$250.00 Street targets sit below today's price; our intrinsic value sits above it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $145.0025% Q4 revenue falls below USD 875 million, organic ARR growth drops below 20%, or free cash flow margin falls short of 22.8%. Such outcomes would indicate that competitive pressure, sales execution, acquisition integration, or infrastructure spending is weakening the conversion of platform demand into durable organic growth and cash generation. Base CaseCentral scenario $192.7756% Matches the consensus meanZscaler delivers Q4 revenue and FY2026 ARR within management's published ranges, with organic ARR growth moderating gradually from Q3's 21% rate. Profitability remains solid, but elevated infrastructure investment keeps full-year free cash flow margin within the reduced 22.8%-23.3% outlook. Bull CaseUpside scenario $250.0019% ARR finishes FY2026 above the USD 3.749 billion guidance ceiling, organic ARR growth remains at least 21%, and Q4 revenue exceeds USD 878 million. Continued adoption of the Zero Trust platform and AI-security offerings supports growth while non-GAAP profitability remains near the Q3 record level. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |