Zoom Communications Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Zoom Communications Inc

ZMNASDAQ

SectorInformation Technology

IndustryApplication Software

Beta (adjusted)1.03

Intrinsic Value $99.97median of 6 methods · middle span $77-$193based on filings through 31 Jul 2026

Market Price $90.77Price as of 30 Sep 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 10% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence

Market Cap $26.5B

Shares Outstanding 296.8M diluted

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date24 Nov 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Zoom's operating indicators support a balanced view. Enterprise net dollar expansion improved to 99% from 98%, customers contributing more than $100,000 of trailing-12-month revenue increased 8.2% year over year, and Zoom Virtual Agent customer count grew 256%. These indicators support the potential for AI-led customer-experience products and platform cross-selling to improve growth. Offsetting this, enterprise net dollar expansion remains below 100%, while online average monthly churn was unchanged at 2.9%, indicating that durable expansion across the installed base is not yet established.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets26 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$79.00

Mean target$115.00

High · most bullish analyst$135.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$79.0017%

Enterprise net dollar expansion deteriorates and online churn rises, indicating that competitive pressure, customer optimization, or weak cross-selling is outweighing adoption of newer AI and customer-experience products.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$115.0057%

Matches the consensus mean

Enterprise retention stabilizes near the reported 99% net dollar expansion rate, online churn remains near 2.9%, and AI products add incremental demand without yet producing broad-based installed-base expansion.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$135.0026%

AI-first customer-experience adoption accelerates, Zoom Virtual Agent's rapid customer growth translates into broader product penetration, and enterprise net dollar expansion moves above 100%. A sustained improvement in expansion would indicate that cross-selling and AI monetization are more than offsetting customer contraction.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Enterprise net dollar expansion improved to 99% from 98% in the comparable prior-year quarter, indicating better retention and expansion momentum.
Zoom reported high-double-digit annual recurring revenue expansion for its AI-first customer-experience portfolio and 256% year-over-year growth in Zoom Virtual Agent customers.

Key Investment Risks

Enterprise net dollar expansion remains below 100%, meaning contraction and attrition still outweigh expansion across the measured customer cohort.
Online average monthly churn remained at 2.9%, unchanged from the comparable prior-year quarter, so evidence of improving online retention is limited.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.