Zillow Group Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Zillow Group Inc

ZNASDAQ

SectorCommunication Services

IndustryInternet Content & Information

Beta (adjusted)1.68

Intrinsic Value $36.27median of 6 methods · middle span $11-$67based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $27.13Price as of 30 Sep 2026

UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 34% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $6.1B

Enterprise Value $5.5B

Shares Outstanding 234.1M diluted

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date29 Oct 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Zillow Group is successfully transitioning from a top-of-funnel search portal to a deeply integrated digital transaction platform. Despite a flat and challenging macroeconomic housing environment, Zillow continues to significantly outperform the broader industry, driven by rapid growth in rentals, mortgages, and premium agent software tools. While near-term regulatory overhangs and listing disputes have depressed the stock's valuation multiples to historical lows, the company's strong balance sheet, aggressive share buybacks, and clear path to a $5 billion mid-cycle revenue target present a highly compelling risk-reward profile for long-term investors.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets6 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$34.00

Mean target$46.00

High · most bullish analyst$62.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$34.0020%

Persistent high mortgage rates and deteriorating affordability push existing home sales below the 4-million run rate. The FTC litigation results in adverse rulings that disrupt the rentals marketplace model, and listing disputes with regional MLS cooperatives expand, degrading Zillow's data advantage. Elevated legal expenses persist, and share repurchases deplete cash reserves before self-sustaining cash flow is achieved.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$46.0050%

Matches the consensus mean

The housing market remains soft through late 2026, with existing home sales bouncing along the bottom. Zillow continues to outpace the industry by delivering mid-teens revenue growth, driven by rentals growing at ~30% and steady adoption of Zillow Showcase and Follow Up Boss. Operating leverage begins to accelerate in the back half of 2026 as front-loaded advertising and legal expenses normalize, supporting a re-rating toward historical valuation multiples.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$62.0030%

The U.S. housing market undergoes a gradual recovery, returning to a historical average of 5 million existing home sales annually. Zillow's Enhanced Markets expansion successfully scales to cover 75% of connections, and Zillow Home Loans achieves a 15% adoption rate in established markets. Rentals maintain a >30% growth trajectory, and AI-driven search tools drive higher conversion rates, expanding Adjusted EBITDA margins toward the 45% mid-cycle target.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Unrivaled audience scale with over 220 million average monthly unique users, making Zillow synonymous with digital real estate search.
Strong secular growth engines in Rentals (+42% YoY in Q1 2026) and Mortgages (+56% YoY in Q1 2026) that diversify revenue away from pure transaction volumes.
Robust balance sheet with $788 million in cash and short-term investments and minimal debt, backed by an active share repurchase program.
Deep workflow integration through ShowTime, Follow Up Boss, and Zillow Showcase, creating high switching costs for real estate professionals.

Key Investment Risks

Macroeconomic sensitivity to elevated mortgage rates and housing affordability, which limits overall transaction volumes.
Regulatory and litigation risks, including the ongoing FTC antitrust lawsuit and subsequent shareholder class actions.
Data supply disruptions, as highlighted by the Midwest Real Estate Data (MRED) cooperative listing feed suspension.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

A sustained decline in average monthly unique users or visits, indicating a loss of consumer mindshare to competitors.
An adverse final judgment or severe operational restrictions imposed by the FTC regarding rental listing practices.
Failure to achieve Adjusted EBITDA margin expansion in the second half of 2026, signaling structural cost inefficiencies.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.