Zebra Technologies Corp Dossier - Source-backed chat

Zebra Technologies Corp

ZBRANASDAQ

SectorInformation Technology

IndustryCommunication Equipment

Beta (adjusted)1.39

Intrinsic Value $304.29median of 6 methods · middle span $259-$316based on filings through 4 Jul 2026

Market Price $373.31Price as of 30 Sep 2026

OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 18% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $17.7B

Enterprise Value $20.3B

Shares Outstanding 48.4M diluted

Moat Rating Narrow

Next Earnings Date3 Nov 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Zebra entered the second half of 2026 with strong operating momentum: second-quarter organic sales grew 9.2%, both operating segments expanded organically, and management materially raised full-year sales, adjusted EBITDA-margin, EPS, and free-cash-flow guidance. The Elo acquisition broadens Zebra's customer-facing workflow opportunity, while the disposal of the Robotics Automation business sharpens investment toward RFID, machine vision, and frontline AI. These positives are balanced by acquisition-integration risk, $2.776 billion of debt, substantial share repurchases, and a second-quarter margin that benefited from tariff recoveries.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets16 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$292.02

Mean target$405.31

High · most bullish analyst$455.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$292.0220%

Enterprise spending slows, organic growth falls below expectations, and Elo integration raises costs without sufficient cross-selling. Second-quarter profitability proves unusually favorable because of tariff recoveries, full-year adjusted EBITDA margin falls below 23.5%, and cash flow underperforms while debt remains elevated and repurchases continue.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$405.3156%

Matches the consensus mean

Zebra broadly delivers its raised 2026 outlook: reported sales growth remains within 14%-16%, adjusted EBITDA margin is 23.5%-24.0%, and free cash flow exceeds $1 billion. Elo contributes to Connected Frontline growth while the robotics disposal improves strategic focus, but acquisition effects and tariff recoveries make normalized organic growth and margin quality important to verify.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$455.0024%

Demand for workflow digitization, RFID, machine vision, and frontline AI remains broad-based; organic growth persists above the high end of management's outlook; Elo cross-selling expands customer-facing deployments; and productivity plus acquisition synergies sustain adjusted EBITDA margin at or above 24%. Free cash flow exceeds guidance, permitting both debt reduction and disciplined repurchases.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Broad-based second-quarter demand produced 9.2% consolidated organic sales growth, including growth in both Connected Frontline and Asset Visibility & Automation.
Management raised 2026 guidance to 14%-16% sales growth, 23.5%-24.0% adjusted EBITDA margin, $20.75-$21.25 non-GAAP diluted EPS, and more than $1 billion of free cash flow.
Elo expands Zebra into customer-facing workflows and increased the company's stated addressable market by approximately $8 billion.
The Robotics Automation disposal sharpens strategic focus on RFID, machine vision, and frontline AI.
The board's additional $1 billion repurchase authorization and $568 million of first-half 2026 repurchases demonstrate substantial capital-return capacity.

Key Investment Risks

Second-quarter gross margin and adjusted EBITDA benefited from IEEPA tariff recoveries, reducing the usefulness of the quarter as a normalized profitability run rate.
Acquisition integration remains material after Zebra spent $1.365 billion on Elo and Photoneo in 2025.
Total debt was $2.776 billion at July 4, 2026 while Zebra continued substantial share repurchases.
Approximately eight percentage points of expected 2026 reported sales growth come from acquisitions, dispositions, and foreign currency rather than underlying organic growth.
Zebra identifies customer acceptance, emerging technology, component availability, trade policy, foreign exchange, cybersecurity, and acquisition integration among factors that could adversely affect results.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.