Yum China Holdings Inc Dossier
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SectorConsumer Discretionary IndustryRestaurants Beta (adjusted)0.40 Intrinsic Value $54.39median of 6 methods · middle span $49-$159based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $41.10Price as of 30 Sep 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 32% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $13.9B Enterprise Value $13.5B Shares Outstanding 346M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date4 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend27 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Yum China combines accelerating unit expansion with positive same-store sales, sustained transaction growth and operating-margin improvement. Second-quarter 2026 system sales rose 6%, same-store sales rose 1%, operating profit increased 14%, and the store base reached 19,297. The completed acquisition of the Pizza Hut brand in Mainland China adds a potential margin and growth catalyst, although delivery-related rider costs, lower average tickets and acquisition-financing execution remain material uncertainties. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$52.00 Mean target$62.05 High · most bullish analyst$77.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $52.0020% Delivery mix and rider costs continue rising, value offerings depress average tickets, same-store sales turn negative and rapid expansion produces weaker unit economics. Pizza Hut integration or bridge-loan refinancing also falls short of the expected margin and earnings benefits. Base CaseCentral scenario $62.0555% Matches the consensus meanThe company surpasses 20,000 stores in 2026, maintains approximately flat-to-low-single-digit same-store sales growth and gradually expands margins through scale, automation and Pizza Hut ownership. Bull CaseUpside scenario $77.0025% The company exceeds its 2026 store target, sustains positive same-store sales and captures the expected Pizza Hut license-fee savings. Pizza Hut openings accelerate toward more than 800 annually in 2027 and 2028, while consolidated operating margin advances toward or above the 2028 target. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |