Yum! Brands Inc Dossier
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SectorConsumer Discretionary IndustryRestaurants Beta (adjusted)0.71 Intrinsic Value $200.16median of 5 methods · middle span $158-$200based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $136.34Price as of 30 Sep 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 47% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $37.2B Shares Outstanding 277M diluted Next Earnings Date3 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend27 May 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Yum's continuing portfolio entered the second half of 2026 with operating momentum: second-quarter results excluding Pizza Hut included 7% system-sales growth, 6% unit growth, 4% same-store-sales growth and 8% core operating-profit growth. Taco Bell delivered 7% same-store-sales growth, KFC unit growth was 7%, and digital mix excluding Pizza Hut exceeded 60%. The agreed Pizza Hut divestiture could sharpen the portfolio and provide approximately $2.3 billion of net proceeds, but closing, separation and capital-allocation execution remain pending, while the July 2026 cyclospora disruption creates a near-term test for Taco Bell. The risk-balanced operating view supports Hold rather than a valuation-dependent Buy or Sell call. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$147.00 Mean target$173.38 High · most bullish analyst$200.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $147.0020% One or both Pizza Hut transactions are delayed, adjusted or fail to deliver the expected benefits, while Taco Bell same-store sales turn non-positive and continuing-portfolio unit or profit growth falls below Yum's long-term model. Greater dependence on Taco Bell and KFC would then amplify food-safety, franchisee, geopolitical, foreign-exchange, technology and consumer-demand risks. Base CaseCentral scenario $173.3855% Matches the consensus meanThe Pizza Hut sales close broadly as announced, separation costs remain near the disclosed approximately $85 million expectation, and the continuing portfolio tracks Yum's long-term growth model with some quarterly volatility. Taco Bell recovers from the July food-safety disruption without lasting brand damage, while KFC development and digital adoption support recurring franchise economics. Bull CaseUpside scenario $200.0025% The Pizza Hut transactions close within the announced third-quarter window, the approximately $2.3 billion of expected net proceeds and incremental $4 billion repurchase authorization are deployed without impairing growth investment, and Taco Bell and KFC sustain their second-quarter momentum. Under this outcome, the continuing portfolio remains at or above Yum's 5% unit-growth, 7% system-sales-growth and at-least-8% core-operating-profit-growth model. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |