York Water Co Dossier
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SectorUtilities IndustryWater Utilities Beta (adjusted)0.72 Intrinsic Value $39.67median of 6 methods · middle span $30-$46based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $30.62Price as of 30 Sep 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 30% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $496.9M Enterprise Value $686.1M Shares Outstanding 15.2M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend30 Jun 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary The York Water Company (YORW) represents a highly stable, defensive utility investment characterized by the longest consecutive dividend payment streak in the United States (over 210 years). Operating as a regulated water and wastewater utility in south-central Pennsylvania, its business model provides predictable, low-risk cash flows. However, the company's growth is heavily capital-intensive, requiring continuous infrastructure investments that are currently outpacing free cash flow generation. This has led to a reliance on debt and dilutive equity offerings (such as the April 2026 public offering) to fund capital expenditures and maintain its dividend. Given its premium valuation relative to peers and limited near-term catalysts, a Hold recommendation is warranted. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$30.00 Mean target$30.00 High · most bullish analyst$30.00 Street targets sit below today's price; our intrinsic value sits above it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario Regulatory pushback or delays in rate cases limit the company's ability to recover its heavy infrastructure investments. Continued reliance on equity issuance to fund capital expenditures dilutes existing shareholders, while high interest rates keep debt servicing costs elevated, putting pressure on dividend coverage. Base CaseCentral scenario The company successfully integrates its newly acquired water and wastewater systems and continues to secure favorable rate adjustments from the Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission (PPUC). Capital expenditures remain elevated but are steadily recovered through the DSIC mechanism and base rate increases, supporting a stable dividend growth rate of approximately 4% annually. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |