Yext Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Yext Inc

YEXTNYSE

SectorInformation Technology

IndustryApplication Software

Beta (adjusted)1.08

Intrinsic Value $5.65median of 6 methods · middle span $3-$7based on filings through 31 Jul 2026

Market Price $6.47Price as of 30 Sep 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 13% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $640.4M

Enterprise Value $701.3M

Shares Outstanding 106.1M diluted

Moat Rating Wide

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Yext is undergoing a significant strategic transition, pivoting its platform toward enterprise agentic marketing and autonomous AI agents. While the company demonstrates strong operational discipline—evidenced by a robust 25% Adjusted EBITDA margin and solid cash generation—top-line growth remains highly pressured. The deliberate contraction of its lower-value (sub-$50K ARR) customer base, combined with a sequential decline in overall ARR to $440.8 million and a drop in upmarket net retention to 97%, highlights execution risks. Furthermore, the cessation of forward-looking financial guidance and quarterly earnings calls introduces an information overhang, making a Hold recommendation appropriate until clear signs of top-line stabilization and AI-driven upmarket acceleration emerge.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets1 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$5.00

Mean target$5.00

High · most bullish analyst$5.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$3.5020%

The bear case materializes if upmarket customer churn accelerates and net retention rates continue to deteriorate below 97% due to intense competition in the digital presence and AI search space. If the transition to agentic marketing fails to offset the deliberate wind-down of the sub-$50K cohort, overall ARR will contract significantly. This top-line erosion, combined with high debt levels relative to cash post-tender offer, would severely compress multiples and erode shareholder value.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$5.0050%

Matches the consensus mean

In the base case, Yext's revenue remains relatively flat (growing at ~0.7% to 1.8% annually) as the deliberate churn of smaller, low-margin customers offsets modest gains in the enterprise segment. Operating margins remain stable due to strict cost discipline, and EPS is supported by ongoing share buybacks. The stock trades in a range-bound fashion, reflecting a balance between solid cash generation and a lack of strong top-line growth catalysts.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$6.0030%

The bull case is predicated on rapid enterprise adoption of Yext's newly opened agentic marketing platform and Scout competitive intelligence tools. If upmarket customers (≥$50K ARR) expand their contracts to deploy autonomous AI agents, net retention rates will rebound. Combined with aggressive share repurchases (including the recently increased $100 million open-market authorization) and disciplined cost management, this operating leverage could drive substantial EPS expansion and trigger a valuation re-rating.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Strong operational efficiency with a 25% Adjusted EBITDA margin in Q1 FY27.
Pivoting to high-value enterprise customers (≥$50K ARR) which represent over 91% of total ARR.
Active capital return program, including a completed $140 million tender offer and an additional $100 million share repurchase authorization.
First-mover positioning in structured data infrastructure for autonomous AI search agents.

Key Investment Risks

Negative top-line growth with Q1 FY27 revenue declining 1.4% year-over-year.
Worsening dollar-based net retention rate in the core upmarket cohort, dropping to 97%.
Elevated execution and transition risk from halting forward-looking financial guidance and quarterly earnings calls.
Fragile balance sheet with $91.9 million in cash compared to $147.6 million in debt following the tender offer.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Overall ARR falling below $420 million.
Upmarket (≥$50K ARR) net retention rate dropping below 95%.
Adjusted EBITDA margin compressing below 20% due to rising R&D or customer acquisition costs.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.