Xylem Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Xylem Inc

XYLNYSE

SectorIndustrials

IndustryIndustrial Machinery & Supplies & Components

Beta (adjusted)1.00

Intrinsic Value $136.24median of 6 methods · middle span $114-$145based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $101.27Price as of 30 Sep 2026

UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 35% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $23.6B

Enterprise Value $25.3B

Shares Outstanding 240.1M diluted

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date29 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend27 Aug 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Xylem entered the second half of 2026 with strong operating execution: second-quarter adjusted EBITDA margin reached 23.3%, adjusted EPS rose 16% to $1.46, and management raised full-year adjusted EPS guidance to $5.55-$5.70. Organic orders increased 41%, indicating substantial future demand, although second-quarter organic revenue increased only 1% and full-year organic revenue guidance narrowed to approximately 2%-3%.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets17 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$129.00

Mean target$153.41

High · most bullish analyst$180.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$129.0018%

The gap between strong orders and modest organic revenue persists, project conversion slows, or macroeconomic, tariff, supply-chain, competitive, cybersecurity, and large-project execution pressures outweigh pricing and productivity. A reduction in the lower end of revenue, margin, or EPS guidance would weaken the earnings-quality thesis.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$153.4158%

Matches the consensus mean

Xylem delivers approximately $9.2 billion of 2026 revenue, organic growth near the 2%-3% outlook, adjusted EBITDA margin within 23.1%-23.5%, and adjusted EPS within $5.55-$5.70. Margin execution offsets moderate near-term revenue growth while strong orders support the subsequent period.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$180.0024%

Strong organic orders convert into revenue faster than expected while pricing, productivity, and favorable mix sustain adjusted EBITDA margin at or above the upper end of the 23.1%-23.5% outlook. Broadening demand from municipal customers and industrial applications, including data centers, semiconductors, power generation, mining, food and beverage, and life sciences, supports continued earnings upgrades.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Second-quarter adjusted EBITDA margin expanded 150 basis points year over year to 23.3%, adjusted EPS increased 16% to $1.46, and management raised full-year adjusted EPS guidance.
Second-quarter orders were $3.1 billion, increasing 41% organically, with company book-to-bill of 132%, providing substantial prospective demand coverage.
Management identified strengthening demand across municipal water and industrial markets, including data centers, semiconductors, power generation, mining, food and beverage, and life sciences.

Key Investment Risks

Second-quarter organic revenue growth was only 1%, and full-year organic revenue guidance narrowed to approximately 2%-3%, making order conversion an important execution variable.
Xylem identifies macroeconomic conditions, tariffs, inflation, supply-chain disruption, pricing pressure, cybersecurity incidents, foreign-exchange volatility, regulation, and large-project execution among factors that could cause results to differ from expectations.
Adjusted metrics exclude restructuring, realignment, acquired-intangible amortization, business-sale effects, and special charges, so reported results can differ materially from the adjusted performance emphasized in guidance.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.