Xometry Inc Dossier
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SectorIndustrials IndustryIndustrial Distribution Beta (adjusted)1.21 Intrinsic Value $72.88median of 3 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $102.85Price as of 30 Sep 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 29% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $5.9B Enterprise Value $6.2B Shares Outstanding 49.1M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date3 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Xometry is successfully transitioning from a high-growth, unprofitable digital marketplace into a highly scalable, AI-native manufacturing infrastructure platform. The company's proprietary AI-powered Instant Quoting Engine creates a powerful data moat, where every transaction refines pricing accuracy and routing efficiency, driving marketplace gross margin expansion. Top-line growth is accelerating, supported by a massive offline-to-online transition in custom manufacturing and a strategic partnership with Siemens. While GAAP profitability remains elusive, the rapid improvement in Adjusted EBITDA and positive operating cash flow demonstrate strong operating leverage. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$95.00 Mean target$109.13 High · most bullish analyst$126.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $95.00 A macroeconomic slowdown in industrial production or manufacturing PMI contraction dampens buyer demand. The services segment (Thomasnet) continues to drag on overall growth, and international expansion remains highly unprofitable. Refinancing or dilution risks from the $335.8M convertible notes pressure the stock price. Base CaseCentral scenario $109.13 Matches the consensus meanXometry delivers on its raised FY 2026 revenue growth guidance of 27% to 28%, led by ~30% marketplace revenue growth. The company maintains its target of at least 20% incremental Adjusted EBITDA margins, scaling Adjusted EBITDA significantly. The Siemens partnership rolls out smoothly, validating Xometry's software-embedded sourcing strategy. GAAP losses continue to narrow. Bull CaseUpside scenario $126.00 Marketplace growth continues to accelerate above 35% YoY, driven by rapid enterprise adoption and deeper integration of Xometry's AI quoting engine into Siemens Xcelerator. International segments reach Adjusted EBITDA break-even ahead of schedule, and marketplace gross margins expand past 35% due to superior AI pricing accuracy. The company achieves GAAP net income profitability by late 2026. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |